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Summer Looks to Continue its Angelic Run

May 15th, 2009

Summer looks to go three for three with the release of Angels and Demons. On the one hand, so far 2009 has been amazing at the box office with almost no movie really faltering. On the other hand, the original did not impress critics and that could hurt this film's run. That said, this time last year was a little weaker than expected as Prince Caspian stumbled out of the gate.

Angels and Demons hopes to perform at least as well as The Da Vinci Code did back in 2006, and it is off to a good start, at least with the critics. That movie earned a mere 24% positive, which is unacceptable for a movie aimed at an older, more mature target audience. This movie is earning 39% positive, which is still low, but not so low that it will significantly hurt the film's box office chances. As for its box office chances, most analysts expect the film to generate between $50 and $60 million during its opening weekend, which is significantly below what The Da Vinci Code made two years ago. Given the wave of positive news at the box office this year, I think it will perform better at $62 million, which is still a sharp drop-off from its predecessor, but not as extreme as most are predicting.

With the best reviews of any wide release this year, Star Trek looks to avoid a massive drop-off this weekend. Given the type of film, and the obvious Fanboy effect associated with it, a 60% drop-off seems likely. That said, given its reviews, and the fact that it is a franchise re-boot instead of a full sequel, it might avoid that fate. In fact, some are predicting that it will avoid falling 50% this weekend. I wouldn't go that far, but it could come close. Look for just over $35 million over the weekend and just under $135 million in total.

The competition from new releases will again hurt Wolverine, but not as much as last time around. It should add about $12 million over the weekend, which will leave it shy of $150 million in total. Getting to $150 million won't be a problem, but getting to $175 might be.

Ghosts of Girlfriends Past is still the only comedy, romantic or otherwise, playing at the saturation level, which is giving it a serious advantage at the box office. So far it has made $32 million, while it should add another $6 million over the coming weekend. Look for $50 million in total, which is a little lower than original expectations, but still enough to be considered a midlevel hit.

Rounding out the top five should be Obsessed with between $3 and $4 million over the weekend, which will be enough to lift it to $60 million in total. Solid-counter programming.


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Filed under: Star Trek, X-Men Origins: Wolverine, Angels & Demons, Obsessed, Ghosts of Girlfriends Past