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Sequel vs. Skaters

March 18th, 2005

It's a model weekend for releases, as we have one high profile release and a counter-programming film. They shouldn't interfere with each other's box office, as their target audiences don't overlap in any significant way.

The Ring 2 opens in more than 3,300 theatres and is the obvious choice for the biggest film of the weekend, but how big is the real question. Its reviews are less than half as positive as the reviews the original earned. But it should still open with more than twice the box office the first film peaked with, or roughly $40 million. Its legs, on the other hand, will be much, much shorter and missing $100 million is a real possibility.

After a disappointing opening last weekend Robots can redeem itself this weekend with a shallow drop-off. A drop-off of less than 30% for its sophomore stint and the film will be considered a huge hit (for this time of year at least). A drop-off of more than 40% will be seen as disastrous, while the final figure will most likely be somewhere in-between. So look for $24 million this weekend and enough legs to hit $100 million, or at least close enough that the studio will give it an extra push to hit that milestone.

Ice Princess should sneak past The Pacifier and into third place. The reason for this is simple, they are both being distributed by Disney and due to the way the box office is split between studio and theatre these days, Disney will make more money from Ice Princess's opening weekend than The Pacifier's third. Therefore, they will push the former film harder, even at the expense of the latter film. Because of this, and much better reviews than expected, the film should earn just over $13 million over the weekend and $45 million overall.

The Pacifier continues its improbable run this weekend and should top $11 million, hitting $70 million overall. And with holidays on the way, its family friendly nature could help it hit $100 million, or at least come close.

Three films will be in a tight race for the final spot in the top five. Be Cool, Hostage and Hitch all have a shot and all should finish with between $5 million and $6 million. However, Hitch should have the best shot at taking that prize and is the only film of the bunch that won't be looked at as a disappointment.


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Filed under: Hitch, Robots, The Pacifier, The Ring Two, Be Cool, Hostage, Ice Princess