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Aeon Redux

December 2nd, 2005

The first weekend of December is usually not a very strong; too many people are trying to get their gift shopping done and are way too busy to check out a movie. (I, on the other hand, have been finished for weeks now.) Without much in the way of competition, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire will likely win the weekend race for the third time in the film's run.

The post-Thanksgiving Holiday weekend usually results in massive drop-offs for even the hardiest films, so it's no shame for Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire to see its box office cut in half. That will still leave the film with $25 million over the weekend and nearly $235 million during its run. That will be enough to put the film in a virtual tie with War of the Worlds for second place for the year.

The only wide release of the weekend is Aeon Flux, which has turned from possible surprise hit to impending disaster. The studio cancelled advanced screenings for critics, but since this report is late, some reviews have filtered in, and they are not good. The only thing going for the film is the cult appeal of the cartoon it is based on and a rather effective ad campaign. An opening of about $13 million is the most likely result, but it could still surprise.

Walk the Line continues its trek to $100 million, and should get $10 million closer this weekend. That will give the film a total of $70 million, and if it earns its share of nominations and gets a bit of studio help, it could still reach that milestone.

Post-holiday weekends are tough on family films like Yours, Mine & Ours, especially ones with terrible reviews. A drop-off of 60% is not be out of the question, but I think it will just avoid that fate, landing at $7.5 million.

Lastly there's Chicken Little, which will plummet this weekend. This is partially due to the same factors affecting the previous film, but it is made worse due to the large drop in its theatre count. That'll leave the film with $5 million over the weekend, but it's already a box office success, so the studio should be more than happy with that result.


Filed under: Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, Chicken Little, Walk the Line, Yours, Mine and Ours, Aeon Flux