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Busy Easter Weekend

April 9th, 2004

With four movies already in 3000 or more theatres, it was slim pickings for the five movies opening. The top draw could only manage 7th spot on this week's theatre count charts and one of the new openers couldn't even make the top ten. Even so, a new release should still take the top spot.

It opens in a slender 2148 theatres, but I think The Girl Next Door has the best shot at top spot. It has easily the best reviews being the only film to earn overall positive reviews, in fact, it currently has more positive reviews than the other four movies opening this week combined. And targeting the biggest movie going demographic, (teenage males) won't hurt either. Look for $16 million this weekend and reasonable, but not spectacular legs.

Given the weekday numbers expect a 40% increase in the box office for The Passion of the Christ. However, that will be partially mitigated by its lose in theatre count of more than 200. Pulling in another $14 million should be enough to push it past $350 million; already in the top ten, this would put it with one week of seventh spot. Meaning it should have a large enough box office to stay in the top ten for about year.

Hellboy didn't match my expectations last weekend, but at least it can show some strong legs by taking in $13 million this weekend. It won't be enough to make $100 million, however, but it will be enough to help show a profit by the end of its international run.

Ella Enchanted opens in less than 2000 theatres but it has the best chance at filling out the final place in the top ten. It has the second best reviews for the new movies opening this week, but at only 42% that's nothing special. Still, this types of films are pretty reliable so beating $9 million should be a obtainable goal.

The other two movies opening this weekend will have will both finish in the lower part of the top ten with roughly the same box office.

The Whole Ten Yards, sequel to 2000's The Whole Nine Yards. Reviews for the first movie were mediocre at best, but this one's reviews are just awful with just one positive out of 36 on Rotten Tomatoes. I expect this film to open with barely more than half the original's at just under $8 million, and it should have even worse legs.

Lastly we have Johnson Family Vacation, which managed to beat expectations by a small margin. I took into account its rather pathetic reviews in my previous prediction so I'm upping it slightly to $7 million.

Also of note, 13 Going On 30 is having a sneak peak this Saturday in about 600 theatres.

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Filed under: The Passion of the Christ, Hellboy, Johnson Family Vacation, Ella Enchanted, The Whole Ten Yards, The Girl Next Door