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At Least Next Week Looks Good

April 30th, 2004

It's a busy last weekend in April with five movies opening wide. However, it is uncertain if any of these films can take top spot. This is partly due to the competition but it is also due to the weakness of the reviews; just one film has overall positive reviews and the other four films have combined reviews under 15% positive.

It will be a close race for first place, but Mean Girls should have the best shot at top spot. Written by Tina Fey, also known as the only funny person left on Saturday Night Live, the film is earning stellar reviews that are currently just over 80% positive. It is also opening in more theatres than expected. But with direct competition from last week's runner-up it will have a difficult task earning a breakout box office. Still, first place and just under $15 million should be in its future.

Speaking of runner-ups, 13 Going On 30 could repeat in second place this weekend with $13 million. That represents a reasonable 40% drop-off for its debut.

There were a trio of revenge based movies released in April, however the first two started well they dropped fast, really fast. Man on Fire looks like it will be no different dropping just more than 50% to $11 million.

The box office potential of Laws of Attraction depends almost entirely on the chemistry of its two stars, Julianne Moore and Pierce Brosnan. However, according to critics there is not enough chemistry so save the film from its other faults. Look for just $9 million this weekend but better than average legs due to the maturer target audience.

Godsend is the first of two movies opening this week that were pushed back nearly a year. That usually means there were major problems with the film and it looks like either these problems weren't fixed or even more were created. Reviews are atrocious and currently not one cream of the crop critic giving the film a positive reviews. A $7 million opening and a quick exit from theatres is about all the film can hope for at this point.

Envy is looking like a train wreck waiting to happen. Being pushed back five time and nearly a year in total changes is a really bad sign. So is the sudden change in advertising strategy reminiscent of last year's Hollywood Homicide. To top it all off, the film is earning brutal reviews including 0% positive from the cream of the crop. Even with the overall weakness in the box office, it won't make the top five taking in just $6 million.

The last movie opening semi-wide is Bobby Jones: Stroke of Genius. Golf movies have never really made a splash at the box office with the last open wide, The Legend of Bagger Vance, only able to make $30 million. This film has much less star power, is opening is far fewer theatres and to somewhat weaker reviews. And that all spells disaster. Look for an opening of just $3 million, possibly less, and possibly not in to top ten.


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Filed under: Mean Girls, Man on Fire, Laws of Attraction, Godsend, Envy, Bobby Jones: Stroke of Genius, 13 Going On 30