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Friday Estimates: Lots of Upside to Inside Out

June 20th, 2015

Inside Out

Inside Out earned first place during its first day of release with an estimated $34.238 million on Friday. By comparison, the most recent Pixar film, Monsters University, pulled in $30.47 million during its first day of release. With Jurassic World in second place with $29 million on Friday, could Inside Out pull off a surprise weekend win?

To get a sense of Inside Out’s potential opening weekend, we need to compare it to other similar films. We could use Monsters University’s performance; however, that film was a sequel and its reviews were nowhere near as strong as Inside Out’s. Perhaps Brave is a better comparison. That film was an original story and it had a female lead. On the other hand, its reviews were good, but not great. Regardless, comparing with either film gives us an opening weekend of between $92 million and $93 million. One other option is to look at the most recent Pixar film that was an original story and earned nearly perfect reviews. Up, which was also directed by Pete Docter and earned 98% positive reviews, earned $21.48 million on its opening day and finished the weekend with $68.11 million. If Inside Out has the same internal multiplier, it will having an opening weekend haul of $108 million, which is the second-best opening for a Pixar film behind only Toy Story 3, and would make the weekend race really close.

Jurassic World was pushed into second place on Friday with an estimated $29 million. This is 65% lower than its opening Friday, but like (nearly) all sophomore films, it will bounce back over the weekend. For instance, Age of Ultron fell 75% during its second Friday compared to its opening day, but was down just 59% during its second weekend of release. The original The Avengers movie dropped 64% Friday-over-Friday and fell just over 50% for the full weekend. This suggests Jurassic World will earn $104 million over the weekend. This is higher than Friday’s predictions, but it’s just possible it might not be enough to keep it in first place during the full weekend.

The other wide release of the week was Dope, which pulled in $2.38 million on Friday. That’s not a good opening, but its reviews could help it have a better than average internal multiplier. There's not a lot of films in this genre, so it is harder to judge where it will go from here. It’s not going to match Friday’s predictions, but $6 million to $8 million is likely. That’s close enough to call it a victory.


Filed under: Friday Night Box Office, Jurassic World, Avengers: Age of Ultron, Inside Out, Dope, Pete Docter