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Friday Estimates: Rogue Nation Off to Solid Start

August 1st, 2015

Mission: Impossible—Rogue Nation

Mission: Impossible—Rogue Nation earned about $20.3 million at the box office on Friday, including $4 million on Thursday evening, according to Paramount’s Saturday morning estimate. That puts it on track for a $50 million opening weekend, which is decent money by any measure, but isn’t enough to put it in the top ten weekends of 2015, and might not even top The SpongeBob Movie to become the studio’s best opener of the year. Does that count as a disappointing start? Maybe…

Comparisons with other movies in the franchise are tricky, because Mission: Impossible—Ghost Protocol had an exclusive one-week IMAX run when it came out in 2011, and it’s nine years since Mission: Impossible III debuted with $47 million (equivalent to $61 million with today’s ticket prices). Adjusted for inflation, that third installment made $21 million on Friday, so a similar day-to-day performance this time would have Rogue Nation making $59 million for the weekend. In spite of excellent reviews, the market has changed since 2006, and that seems like a tough goal. The franchise’s best unadjusted opening—Mission: Impossible 2’s debut back in 2000—is $57 million, and that record is probably safe. Look for a shade over $50 million for the weekend, perhaps $55 million with a tail wind.

All told, Rogue Nation seems on track for a domestic total somewhere between $150 million and $200 million, which is roughly in line with expectations. Its international prospects are better though, and that’s where the real interest lies in this film. The movie it most resembles in that regard is Furious 7, which just picked up over a billion dollars overseas (only the third film to do so). That sort of number is highly unlikely, of course, but $500 million certainly isn’t, and a $650 million global haul would make Rogue Nation a very profitable film.

The same cannot be said of Vacation, which stands at just over $10 million as of Saturday morning, and picked up $4.5 million on Friday. Bad reviews are killing this one.

- Friday Estimates

Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Friday Night Box Office, Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation, Vacation