Follow us on

Friday Estimates: New Releases Struggle as Revenant Hangs Tough

January 23rd, 2016

The Revenant

While some are blaming the storm for hurting Friday night box office numbers, I think it is wiser to point the finger at the reviews instead. So far, The Boy has earned the best reviews, but with a Tomatometer Score of just 23% positive, that's damning it with faint praise. At the box office, Dirty Grandpa did the best of the new releases, earning second place with $4.2 million. It's early in the year, but it is safe to say its 7% positive reviews will be among the worst of any 2016 release when the year is over. Its CinemaScore was just a B, which is bad. Remember, CinemaScore is based on ratings given to a movie by people who were interested enough to see it on opening day. Anything less than a B+ suggests poor word-of-mouth. It did earn about about 10% more than That Awkward Moment's opening day. Additionally, That Awkward Moment had to deal with The Super Bowl on Sunday, so Dirty Grandpa should have better legs and should pull in $11 million.

The Boy opened in third place with $3.9 million. It earned terrible reviews, it only managed a B- with CinemaScore, and horror films generally are very front-loaded. If it matches The Forest's internal multiplier, it will only finish with $10.0 million over the weekend. Perhaps the storm cost the movie a significant amount on Friday and it will have better legs, but I'm not willing to bet it will.

Finally, The 5th Wave opened in sixth place with $3.5 million. Again, it has to deal with bad reviews and its CinemaScore is just B-. If it cracks $9 million, it will top Sony's prediction, but that's still a bad result. On the other hand, it is doing better internationally, so perhaps it will break even regardless of how well it does here.

As for the holdovers, The Revenant remained in top spot on Friday with $4.55 million. This is 51% lower than last Friday, which is a bigger-than-expected decline. It should bounce back on Saturday, but Sunday the NFL Conference Championship games are being played and there is a huge overlap in the target audience of this film and the NFL. Look for $16 million over the full weekend.

Meanwhile, Star Wars: The Force Awakens picked up another $3.52 million on Friday and should climb into second place over the weekend with $14 million.

- Friday box office numbers

- The 5th Wave Comparisons
- The Boy Comparisons
- Dirty Grandpa Comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates