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Weekend Estimates: Independence Day is Fish Food

June 26th, 2016


Independence Day: Resurgence is getting crushed at the box office this weekend, thanks in part to a strong second weekend for Finding Dory, but mostly because it failed where the original succeeded. Back in 1996, Independence Day pretty much invented the event movie, as it became the film everyone wanted to watch over the July 4 holiday weekend. Its $50.2 million 3-day weekend fell fractionally short of the then-record $52.8 million earned by Batman Forever over its opening weekend in June, 1995, but the $96.1 million it earned over its first five days was unprecedented. Resurgence had a storied past to live up to, and is falling well short.

Finding Dory’s $73.235 million projected weekend will give it $286.6 million after two weekends. A drop of 46% is impressive in the second weekend this day and age, and points to a final total well in excess of $400 million. $450 million is a reasonable bet, which would take it past Shrek 2’s domestic record for an animated movie, before adjusting for ticket-price inflation. Overseas, the fish pic earned another $37 million this weekend for $110.3 million to date. Since it has yet to open in most European markets, due to the football tournament, its hard to gauge where it’ll end up globally, but signs are promising so far.

For Independence Day: Resurgence, there’s little in the way of good news from a $41.6 million opening weekend. The film might benefit from a good July 4 holiday, but the world’s focus seems to be more on the real-world implications of Britain’s departure from Europe, than beating up on aliens.

Elsewhere this weekend, The Shallows is opening with a creditable $16.7 million or so, and should have a good run thanks to strong reviews. Free State of Jones will pick up a more modest $7.77 million this weekend, and will struggle thanks to poor reviews. The Neon Demon is DOA with $606,000 projected from 783 locations.

In limited release, Swiss Army Man is pulling off A24’s usual trick of a big launch from a handful of theaters. It is projected to earn $115,000 from three venues, according to the reports we’ve received so far.

- Weekend estimates

- Finding Dory Comparisons
- Highest-grossing animated movies
- Top 2016 movies at the global box office
- Independence Day: Resurgence Comparisons
- The Shallows Comparisons
- Free State of Jones Comparisons
- The Neon Demon Comparisons
- Swiss Army Man Comparisons

Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Box Office, Free State of Jones, Finding Dory, Independence Day: Resurgence, The Neon Demon, The Shallows