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Friday Estimates: The Girl on the Train Schools the Competition with $9.35 million

October 8th, 2016

Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life

As expected, The Girl on the Train led the way on Friday, albeit with a slightly smaller-than-expected figure of $9.35 million. This is a little more disappointing after the film’s previews, especially since films aimed at more mature women tend to have longer than average legs. We knew the reviews were not good and that wouldn’t help the film; however, the audience reaction was even worse, as the film earned a B- from CinemaScore. Anything below a B+ usually results in weak legs, and we are already seeing The Girl on the Train struggle in that regard. We originally predicted $27 million, but I think $26 million is now more likely. That’s not a bad opening weekend for a movie that cost $45 million to make, so Universal should still be happy. We also can’t be sure how much effect Hurricane Matthew had on the opening day, so business could yet pick up as the storm passes.

The Birth of a Nation was the next best new release, earning fourth place on Friday with $2.63 million. The film earned a solid A from CinemaScore, even while its reviews slipped just below the 80% positive level. It should earn close to $8 million over the weekend, but that won’t be enough for fifth place overall.

Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life only managed $1.95 million on Friday. It is a family film, so it should do better on Saturday, especially if word-of-mouth grows. The reviews are over 60% positive, while it earnd an A- on CinemaScore. That said, this is a really weak start and there’s not real way to spin it in a positive light. Look for $6 million over the entire weekend and it will fade away before the end of the month.

As for the holdovers, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children fell 56% from last Friday earning $3.95 million. This is a little sharper decline than anticipated, but it should come within a rounding error of predictions with $15 million.

Deepwater Horizon was down only 52% week-over-week to $3.42 million. It will beat expectations, again by a rounding error, earning $12 million. This would have been good news, had the film had a better opening. As it is, it is too little, too late.

Masterminds had the best decline of the sophomore films down 48% to $1.2 million and it is on pace for $4 million over the weekend. However, like the above film, this is too little, too late.

- Friday Box Office

- The Girl on the Train Comparisons
- The Birth of a Nation Comparisons
- Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life Comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates