Friday numbers point to $130-million opening for Avatar

December 17, 2022

Avatar: The Way of Water

Good, but not great, numbers on Friday suggest that Avatar: The Way of Water will open with around $130 million this weekend. That’s right at the low end of expectations as of yesterday morning, as the film looks as though it will have a very typical run through opening weekend, with a big “opening day” consisting of Thursday preview screenings and round-the-clock shows on Friday, followed by sagging sales on Saturday and Sunday. So far, there isn’t much sign of people going back for second and third helpings, but it’s early days yet.

Here’s how Way of Water’s previews and Friday earnings stack up against similar opening weekends this year.

So far, so normal, for Avatar. Its first two days look very similar, although slightly behind, the ones for Jurassic World: Dominion and The Batman. It’s doing notably worse than Top Gun: Maverick on a day-to-day basis though. Maverick earned 2.5 times its previews on Friday, Avatar will have a multiplier a little over 2.1.

In other words, it looks as though Way of Water was quite front-loaded on Thursday, much like a standard franchise film. That doesn’t necessarily spell trouble in the long run, partly because it will have very limited competition over the Holidays, but also because we can’t tell how many people will decide to go back for repeat viewings in the coming weeks.

As I noted on Friday, James Cameron films don’t have gigantic openings in general, and Avatar 2 looks as though it’ll deliver the biggest opening weekend for the director by any measure, topping the inflation-adjusted $102.7 million earned by Avatar.

The question about The Way of Water has always been about its legs. The way its opening is shaping up makes that question all the more critical. It’s clear it will need to have a run approaching that of Top Gun, which converted a $126.7-million opening into a total over $700 million, to be the hit Disney is hoping for.

Update: Disney is projecting an opening weekend between $130 million and $150 million, suggesting they are seeing some hopeful signs for business on Saturday and Sunday. We’ll have their official weekend projection tomorrow morning.

Filed under: James Cameron