Weekend projections: strong holds leave Kung Fu Panda narrowly ahead of Dune this weekend

March 17, 2024

Kung Fu Panda 4

Kung Fu Panda 4 will almost certainly end this weekend as the top-grossing film in North America, according to Sunday-morning studio projections, but Dune: Part Two is expected to end just $900,000 behind it as of now, and could still sneak a win. The good news is that both films are holding on well from last weekend.

Here’s how the weekend numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…



Kung Fu Panda 4 continues to track very closely to the performance of the original Kung Fu Panda (excluding the effects of inflation). This iteration of the franchise made $58 million on opening weekend compared to $60 million from the original, and the projected $30 million for Kung Fu Panda 4 this weekend compares to $33.6 million from Kung Fu Panda. Our comparison chart shows how all four movies stack up against one another. Our model is still being fairly cautious, predicting about $170 million in total domestically for Kung Fu Panda 4 as of this morning. If it continues to run about 10% behind the original film, it will end up closer to $200 million.

Internationally, Panda had an excellent opening in Mexico, with $13.572 million. Other countries with million-plus-openings this weekend are Germany ($4.198m), Peru ($1.74m), India ($1.492m), Colombia ($1.316m), and Ukraine ($1.068m). The film also passed $1 million in its second weekend in Spain ($1.522m this weekend for $5.081m in total) and Vietnam ($1.139m for 3.65m total). In China, the film has earned $8.8 million from three days of previews, which aren’t yet included in the official total of $39.628 million internationally and $69 million worldwide.

Dune’s strong hold has elevated our model’s prediction for its final box office total to $253 million, and it continues to rack up strong numbers internationally. It will finish the weekend with about $289.4 million internationally, and $494.7 million worldwide. Top markets are China, with $9.8 million this weekend taking it to $36.1 million in total, the United Kingdom ($5.0m for $32.8m), Germany ($4.9m for $25m), France ($4.2m for $24.9m), Australia ($2.6m for $15.6m), Korea ($2.3m for $13.7m), Japan ($1.7m on opening weekend), and Spain ($1.4m for $9.8m).

Overall, Warner Bros. reports that Dune: Part Two is tracking 67% ahead of Dune, which puts it on track for about $535 million internationally by the end of its run. If it tops $250 million domestically, that will give it somewhere between $750 million and $800 million worldwide.

Arthur the King is the best-performing new release, although it is coming in well behind our Friday-morning prediction. Its $7.5-million weekend is slightly disappointing (our baseline prediction was $9 million).

Love Lies Bleeding will finish sixth with close to $2.5 million. A24 didn’t release a theater count ahead of the weekend, so we could only run a “prediction” this morning. The film is coming in right in line with that prediction, which is a solid result.

One Life is exceeding expectations this weekend with about $1.7 million, and could have a strong hold in the coming weekends thanks to its targeting of an older demographic. The American Society of Magical Negroes is looking at a disappointing $1.25-million start. Its reviews and audience response suggest it won’t stay in theaters long, although it should do well on the home market.

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash,