Weekend Estimates: Breaking Dawn Posts 8th-Biggest Weekend
The beginning of the end for the Twilight franchise is here, and, as expected, big money is being made by Lionsgate/Summit. While this installment doesn't look like it will break franchise records, Lionsgate is predicting a $141.3 million opening weekend, which will be the 8th-best of all time, assuming it holds up. New Moon will most likely remain the top opener for the franchise with $142.8 million, although it will be a close-run thing. Twilight will most likely end up the 5th-highest-grossing franchise at the domestic box office, behind only the "box office gods", Harry Potter, Star Wars, Batman and James Bond.
Breaking Dawn is performing even more impressively at the international box office, with $199.6 million to date. That pales in comparison to the juggernaut that is Skyfall, which has topped $500 million internationally, and is now the top-grossing Bond film worldwide (not adjusted for inflation). Skyfall will post about $41.5 million domestically this weekend, down about 50%, for $161.3 million to date.
As well as blockbusters, this week is the first of the season to have a real glut of award hopefuls. Topping that list is Lincoln, which expanded to 1,775 theaters this weekend and will gross about $21 million, according to Disney. An $11,000 per theater average is nothing to sniff at, but will actually only be good enough for about 6th place on our Per Theater Chart, showing that it still has some work to do in reaching a wide audience. (Thanksgiving could help in that regard.)
The Silver Linings Playbook is having a great opening weekend, with a projected $458,430 from 16 theaters, for an average just under $30,000. Anna Karenina will post around $315,000 from the same number of venues. Both will expand over the next few weeks, but whether they can play wide is still in doubt. One film that started out with similar promise but looks to have run out of steam is The Sessions, which expanded to 516 theaters this weekend and will earn about $900,000 for a per theater average of just over $1,700. Perhaps some acting awards and nominations will keep it going through the Holidays.
Bruce Nash firstname.lastname@example.org
Date posted: 2012-11-18