The Numbers Weekend Preview News Articles
|← June 2017|
July 20th, 2017
So far this summer, box office is running about $200 million behind last year’s pace. The numbers have fallen so far that, year to date, 2017 is now behind 2016’s box office pace. This is even more depressing as last weekend, five of the top six films earned Tomatometer Scores that were over 90% positive. This week, we are continuing the amazing run with critics as two of the three wide releases are earning 90% positive reviews or better, but it doesn’t look like we will be able to improve our box office woes. This weekend last year, Star Trek Beyond opened with nearly $60 million and four other films earned more than $20 million. This weekend, Dunkirk will open in first place and it might top Star Trek Beyond, but that seems unlikely. Even getting to $50 million could be asking too much. Girls Trip should have a box office run somewhere between Rough Night and Bad Moms. ... Yes, I know that’s a lot of wiggle room, but there’s a lot of uncertainty here. Finally there’s Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, which cost $180 million to make but is earning almost no buzz here. (It should do a lot better internationally.) We would have to have all three new releases beat expectations and have solid holdovers for 2017 to come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
July 13th, 2017
War for the Planet of the Apes is going to be the biggest of the three wide releases coming out this week. This much is a near certainty. However, there is some doubt if it will open in first place, or if Spider-Man: Homecoming will remain the top draw over the weekend. The only other wide release of the week is Wish Upon, a low-budget horror film, if it can just reach the top five, then the studio will be very happy. Finally, The Big Sick is expanding wide. Given its limited release run so far, it should become a sleeper hit over the summer. This weekend last year, The Secret Life of Pets and Ghostbusters had a one-two punch of nearly $100 million. I think War for the Planet of the Apes and Spider-Man: Homecoming will top that figure, while the overall depth should help 2017 win in the year-over-year competition, but it will likely be close.
July 6th, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming is the only film opened wide this weekend and that should help it dominate the box office. In fact, it should have the biggest opening since Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2. The competition will put a dent in Despicable Me 3’s box office during the weekend, but even so, it will likely break even sometime over the weekend. This weekend last year had The Secret Life of Pets at the top with just over $100 million, while there were four other films earning $10 million or more. Spider-Man: Homecoming should top The Secret Life of Pets, but the depth this year won’t be as good. If 2017 does lose the year-over-year competition, then its lead over 2016 could evaporate completely.