June 2nd, 2014
It's not a bad week on the home market, given the time of year. Lone Survivor earned more than $100 million at the box office and the Blu-ray Combo Pack is clearly worth picking up. It isn't quite Pick of the Week material, on the other hand. There are a few choices including a pair of documentaries: Plimpton! Starring George Plimpton As Himself - Buy from Amazon and Harry Dean Stanton: Partly Fiction - Buy from Amazon. The third option was Attack on Titan, Part 1 - Blu-ray Combo Pack Regular Edition or Limited Edition. It was essentially a coin-toss between the three, but in the end I went with Plimpton! as Pick of the Week.
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June 1st, 2014
Lone Survivor came out for an Oscar-qualifying run late in December of 2013, which seemed odd, because it didn't look like the typical Oscar-bait movie. However, it actually picked up a couple of Oscar nominations (for technical categories) and more impressively earned a WGA nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay, as well as SAG Award for Best Stunts. This lifts the expectations, but is this for the best? Does the film truly rise above the action genre?
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February 11th, 2014
The LEGO Movie didn't break the record for Biggest February Weekend, but it came close. The Monuments Men performed better than expected, but was still a very distant second place. On the other hand, Vampire Academy bombed, fully and completely. Compared to last week, even without The LEGO Movie, this week is almost better. With The LEGO Movie, this week is 76% better at $151 million. Compared to last year, The LEGO Movie opened with more than the top five made in 2013. Overall, the year-over-year growth was 46%. This is just a fantastic result no matter how you look at it. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in $1.12 billion, putting it 12% ahead of 2013's pace. It is obviously still too early to declare 2014 the winner, but this is still a fantastic start.
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February 9th, 2014
2014 is shaping up to be a good year at the box office. After excellent openings for Ride Along and Lone Survivor in January, February is getting off to a spectacular start thanks to a huge opening weekend for The LEGO Movie. Warner Bros. is projecting an opening of $69.1 million for the toy spin-off -- far and away the biggest weekend of the year so far, and the second-best February weekend ever, behind only The Passion of the Christ. Numbers like that guarantee a sequel or three, and boost a franchise that has already built an impressive following in the video market.
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February 6th, 2014
The first weekend of February should be the biggest with The LEGO Movie looking to dominate the box office, while The Monuments Men is expected to do respectable business over the weekend. The other wide release is Vampire Academy, which wasn't screened for critics. It is not aimed at a target demographic that cares about what critics think, but they still didn't screen the film for critics. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases, Identity Thief and Side Effects. The two films earned a combined $44 million during their opening weekend. The LEGO Movie will make more than that on its own. 2014 should easily win in the year-over-year competition.
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February 3rd, 2014
Super Bowl turned into a blow-out, but still earned a record television audience. This explains why the overall box office numbers were down compared to last weekend. That said, there were some films that did well, including Ride Along, which completed the threepeat and by this time next week with be at over $100 million. On the other hand, the new releases really struggled. That Awkward Moment only managed third place, while Labor Day barely avoided the Mendoza Line. Week-over-week, the overall box office fell 26% to $86 million. Compared to last year, the box office also fell, but by only 3%. That said, 2014 is still ahead of 2013 by 6% at $943 million to $887 million, so the market is still healthy.
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January 31st, 2014
After a weak start, January rebounded and a couple of films on last month's preview cracked $100 million at the box office. Granted, Lone Survivor is technically a December release, but Ride Along will become one of the rare January releases to reach the century mark. Unfortunately, there doesn't appear to be too many February releases that have a real shot at $100 million. It is very likely that The Lego Movie will reach that milestone, but most of the rest of the movies will be lucky if they reach $50 million. Last February was very similar. We had one surprise $100 million hit, Identity Thief, plus a couple of solid midlevel hits, Warm Bodies, for instance. However, for the most part, the month was one miss after another. This means 2014 could continue its winning ways, or at the very least, shouldn't fall behind 2013's pace.
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January 30th, 2014
It's the Super Bowl weekend, so needless to say, the new releases are looking rather weak. Why would any studio want to release a film against what is the largest single sporting event of the year? There are two wide releases coming out, but neither is expected to make much of an impact. That Awkward Moment is the bigger of the two wide releases, but its reviews are terrible. It should still earn first place, because there's no competition to speak of. Labor Day's reviews are slightly better and its target demographic has very little crossover appeal with the Super Bowl. Even so, most think it will miss the top five. This weekend last year, Warm Bodies earned first place with just over $20 million. If That Awkward Moment earns $20 million, I will be shocked. It might not earn too much more than half of that.
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January 27th, 2014
I, Frankenstein died at the box office, as it missed the top five entirely. This gave Ride Along an easy road to first place over the weekend. Meanwhile, the rest of the top five all matched expectations, or came within a rounding error of doing so. This helped the overall box office somewhat. It was still a post-holiday frame and the total box office fell 34% to $117 million, but it could have been worse. Compared to last year, the overall box office was 4% higher, which is good news early in the year. 2014 has extended its lead over 2013 to 9% at $823 million to $754 million.
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January 26th, 2014
After tracking poorly for months, Lionsgate's I, Frankenstein arrived in theaters this weekend with a disappointing projected $8.275 million, according to the distributor, enough for only 6th place on a box office chart that's a jumble of Oscar hopefuls and less ambitious January fare. Ride Along tops the list with $21.1 million projected for the weekend by Universal, which also lays claim to this weekend's number two spot with Lone Survivor's $12.6 million.
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January 23rd, 2014
After a record-breaking weekend, it's a letdown this weekend. I, Frankenstein is the only wide release of the week and there's very little chance it will be a major hit at the box office. It might overtake Ride Along for top spot, but I wouldn't bet on it. Last year Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters was the biggest release of the week earning $19.69 million over the weekend, while it and Mama were the only two films to earn more than $10 million. We should have four films earning more than $10 million over the weekend, so 2014 should win in the year-over-year comparison.
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January 21st, 2014
It was a record-breaking weekend with Ride Along earning the biggest January opening weekend and the biggest MLK long weekend. Needless to say, it crushed expectations. Additionally, The Nut Job overcame terrible reviews to earn a solid opening, at least according to estimates. Overall, the box office pulled in $176 million over the three-day weekend, which is 26% more than the three-day weekend last week and last year. Over the four-day weekend, the box office pulled in $211 million, or 28% more than last year's MLK long weekend. That's great news, as 2014 was below 2013's pace. In fact, after this weekend, 2014 has pulled ahead of 2013 by 8% at $671 million to $621 million.
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January 19th, 2014
What could have been a close run thing at the box office this weekend has turned into a romp to victory for Ride Along, with the comedy set to break Cloverfield's record for biggest opening weekend in January with estimated three-day $41.2 million. The performance is all the more impressive for being delivered from just 2,663 theaters, and marks Universal's third consecutive MLK weekend win, following Mama last year and Contraband in 2012. With the studio's holdover, Lone Survivor, holding on to second place with $23.2 million in its second weekend the other three wide openers range from 3rd to 6th place in the charts.
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January 19th, 2014
SAG handed out their awards last night, and while there were not many surprises, there was one major upset, at least in my mind. Dallas Buyers Club led the way with two wins, making it the new Oscar favorite.
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January 17th, 2014
At the beginning of the month, I thought this weekend would be a close race between Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit and Ride Along. That might still be the case, but it is increasingly unlikely, as Jack Ryan's buzz hasn't kept pace with the buzz for Ride Along. Additionally, Jack Ryan has direct competition from Lone Survivor, which nearly set the January record last weekend and should remain potent this weekend. This weekend last year, Mama won the weekend with $28.40 million and I don't think Ride Along will top that. On the other hand, last year there were only three films that topped $10 million, while this year there could be as many as seven or eight. (All four wide releases have a shot at $10 million, but it is likely not all will get there. There are two holdovers that will earn more than $10 million. Finally, American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street might get an Oscar bounce back to $10 million.) Even in the worst case scenario, four films will crack $10 million. 2014 should win for the first time in the week-over-week comparison.
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January 16th, 2014
The Oscar nominations were announced this morning and there are some surprises mixed in with the predictable results. Gravity and American Hustle led the way with ten nominations each while 12 Years a Slave was right behind with nine. The fact that 12 Years a Slave wasn't the leader is the first of the surprises.
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January 14th, 2014
The winner of our Powering Up contest was determined and it is...
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January 14th, 2014
There was only one film in the $10,000 club, but that's one more than a lot of people thought there would be. Lone Survivor expanded wide earning $37.85 million in 2,876 theaters for an average of $13,161. That's awesome, especially for this time of year.
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January 14th, 2014
As expected, Lone Survivor won the race to first place on the box office this past weekend. However, it crushed predictions to an astounding degree. It wasn't enough. The overall box office was down to $140 million. Granted, that was less than 1% lower than last weekend and just over 1% lower than the same weekend last year, but it is still frustrating. Besides the number one film, there's not a lot of positive news to report. Year-to-date, 2014 is a little behind 2013 at $413 million to $436 million. Granted, it is far too soon to talk about end of year results, but you obviously would want a fast start rather than a slow start.
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January 12th, 2014
2014 has its first bona fide hit this weekend, with Lone Survivor posting an impressive $38.5 million, according to Universal's weekend estimate. That's the fifth-best January weekend in history, and the second-best by a film that wasn't already playing wide over the holidays (Avatar holds the top three spots in the chart and Cloverfield remains the record-holding new release). Unfortunately, the success of Lone Survivor was in part to blame for a weak debut by The Legend of Hercules, which will end in 4th or 5th place for the weekend.
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January 10th, 2014
There is only one truly new wide release this weekend: The Legend of Hercules. This film is earning zero positive reviews and most analysts think it will miss the top five. Fortunately, there are a couple of limited releases expanding wide this weekend that should help compensate. Lone Survivor is the most obviously mainstream hit and it has been doing surprisingly well in limited release. Meanwhile, Her is probably too out there to be a mainstream hit, but its reviews suggest it should at least do well with those looking for Oscar-quality films. This weekend last year was the weekend Zero Dark Thirty expanded wide. It pulled in $24.44 million over the weekend, which is a figure Lone Survivor might match. Unfortunately for 2014, 2013 had much better depth at the box office, so even if the Lone Survivor does get to $25 million or beyond, it still looks like the year will continue lower than last year.
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January 7th, 2014
It was a slow week for new releases as none topped $10,000 on the per theater chart. There were some holdovers that performed well, led by Lone Survivor, which pulled in an average of $42,429 in two theaters. This is compared to $45,436 during its opening weekend. Such a small decline is great news for its upcoming wide expansion. August: Osage County was next with an average of $27,983 in five theaters, which is 22% lower than its opening average of $35,860. Its running tally is already at nearly half a million and it has potential to expand, especially if it continues to do well during Awards Season. The final film in the $10,000 club was Her with an average of $15,378 in 47 theaters. It is already at nearly $3 million after three weeks of release and it expands wide this weekend.
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January 5th, 2014
WGAs announced their nominations this weekend and there were a couple of surprises to talk about. The top of that list is 12 Years a Slave, which was deemed ineligible because it wasn't written under WGA jurisdiction. This makes using the WGAs as an Oscar guide less reliable. On the other hand, several Oscar favorites showed up as well, including American Hustle, Nebraska, and others that have picked up major nominations this year.
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January 5th, 2014
Given the weather conditions in half the country, this weekend couldn't have a more appropriate winner at the box office. Disney's Frozen takes top honors again in its 7th weekend in release after previously topping the chart the weekend of December 6th. The film is projected to earn $20.72 million this weekend, making it only the fourth film ever to earn more than $20 million at this stage in its theatrical run. Avatar, Titanic and Home Alone are the other three (and see full list of 7th weekends here). Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones was pushed into second spot with a decent $18.2 million opening.
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January 3rd, 2014
Technically, there's only one wide release next week, The Legend of Hercules. Unfortunately, it is expected to bomb. Fortunately, there are two limited releases expanding wide next week, Her and Lone Survivor. Lone Survivor is by far the most mainstream of these three films and as such, it is the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Lone Survivor.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), regardless if they go over or not, will win a copy of Power Rangers Megaforce: The Mysterious Robo Knight on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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January 1st, 2014
It's the first month of the new year, but the biggest hit might be a film released in December. Last month ended on a slow note with all five Christmas day releases failing to become hits, some more than others. (It's a little too soon to tell if The Wolf of Wall Street or The Secret Life of Walter Mitty will do well enough to break even any time soon, but neither is a serious hit.) There are still some December releases that will likely remain on the charts through the opening weekends of January, while there are some films that opened in limited release last month with a scheduled wide release this month. Of the purely January releases, I would guess Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit will be the biggest hit. Even then, it won't live up to the previous films in the franchise, even if you don't take inflation into account. Most of the rest of the new releases will be happy if they can become midlevel hits. Last January was led by Mama, which earned more than $70 million. I think Shadow Recruit will top that figure at the box office, while there are a similar number of likely box office bombs opening this year as there were last year. 2014 could start out ahead of 2013's pace, but it likely won't be a huge difference either way.
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December 29th, 2013
The Hobbit will extend its run at the top of the chart to three weekends, according to studio estimates released on Sunday, but Frozen is the real winner, with a 47% increase in box office from last weekend (the second-best in the top 10 behind Saving Mr. Banks), and a new entry in the record books as the second-most-successful film in its 6th weekend in theaters -- only Avatar tops it.
The rest of the chart is a mess of new releases enjoying varying degrees of success.
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December 27th, 2013
There are a quartet of films opening in limited release this weekend hoping, as this is the last weekend they could open and still have a shot at Oscar glory this year. Three of the four films have already earned at least one major nomination, while the fourth has a shot at Oscar nominations in a technical category or two. Overall, however, their reviews are merely good, but not great. With all of the competition, it might be too difficult for any of them to expand wide. August: Osage County has the best combination of reviews and buzz and should win the weekend.
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December 14th, 2013
SAG handed out nominations over the week, and like with the Independent Spirit Awards, 12 Years a Slave led the way and earned four nominations. It wasn't the only film that was singled out.
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December 1st, 2013
We had some good news and some bad news in November. The bad news is the overall weakness at the box office continued and 2013 lost its lead over 2012. Strong runs by The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Frozen did help it bounce back in the end, but 2013 is still going to have a tough time topping 2012. Looking forward to December, we find about a dozen wide releases, sort of. There are several films that are opening in limited release that are expected to expand wide by the end of the month, but I'm not sure that will be the case for all of them. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug should be the easy winner this month and if it is a little lucky, it might even top its predecessor at the box office. There is a huge amount of hype surrounding Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues and it could double the first film's box office numbers. On the other hand, those two films might be the only two December wide releases to reach $100 million. There are a few that have the potential to get to the century mark, if they are big players during Awards Season. Obviously some of the films coming out this month will win awards, but there's already a lot of competition in theaters before the month begins. There were three $100 million movies last December, led by The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, so while it could be close, it looks like December will lose in the year-over-year comparison. This is really bad news, as 2013 can't afford to go out on a losing streak if it wants to top 2012.
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