Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Weekend estimates: Croods pulls clear of the pack

February 21st, 2021

The Croods: A New Age will, as expected, finish top at the box office this weekend. In doing so, it becomes the first film in the 21st century to top the chart in its 13th weekend in release. The last film to achieve the feat was Titanic back in 1998. Titanic went on to win 15 weekends during its incredible first run. If A New Age surpassed that number, we’d have to look back to ET’s run in 1982 for something comparable. That film had 16 weekend wins spread through the second half of the year, including the weekend after Thanksgiving—its 26th in release.

Interesting as these stats may be to the connoisseur of box office records, Croods was down 18% from last weekend, which is a slight disappointment, although there is some potentially good news lurking when we look at the complete set of weekend estimates… More...

Weekend estimates: The Little Things stays top on a sluggish weekend

February 7th, 2021

Today’s Super Bowl might be causing some caution among the studios as they compile their weekend projections, but whichever way you cut it, we’re looking at another slow weekend in theaters. The Little Things will come out on top with around $2.1 million, according to Warner Bros.. That’s down a steep 56% from its opening weekend, and 9% below our model’s prediction. In general, almost all films are falling a little shy of the model’s numbers, suggesting that we’re still not seeing real growth in the market. More...

Weekend estimates: Wonder Woman stays top over New Year’s Weekend

January 3rd, 2021

Wonder Woman 1984 will remain top at the box office this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning, but it’ll do so in spite of a sharp fall from its opening weekend. Warner Bros. projects a $5.5-million weekend for the super hero pic, down 67% from last weekend. That’s not a huge fall for a film like this by historical standards, but it is a surprisingly-sharp decline for the New Year weekend, and considerably worse than any other film reporting, many of which increased their box office from Christmas weekend. More...

Weekend estimates: Monster Hunter tops domestic chart, Wonder Woman rules the rest of the world

December 20th, 2020

As expected, Monster Hunter will top the domestic chart this weekend, but the big news is Wonder Woman 1984’s global launch to $38.5 million from 30,221 screens in 32 markets. More...

Weekend estimates: Croods still rule

December 13th, 2020

The Croods: A New Age continues to dominate at the box office (relatively speaking) this weekend, with Universal projecting a weekend box office of $3.01 million for a total of $24.26 million to date. Half Brothers is outperforming expectations in second place with a projected $490,000 sophomore weekend, down just 30% from its last outing. More...

Weekend estimates: Croods leads another dismal weekend

December 6th, 2020

The Croods: A New Age will remain top at the box office this weekend, with Universal projecting a $4.4-million weekend as of Sunday morning. That will take the animated adventure past $20 million in total by the end of the day today. That fact pales in comparison to bad news regarding the continued decline in box office receipts. Returning films are falling 12% to 25% short of our model’s pre-weekend predictions. Part of that is down to the post-Thanksgiving decline that’s to be expected, but the continued toll of the pandemic is further dragging on spending. Perhaps the glimmer of good news is that more people are heeding experts’ advice and watching their movies at home. More...

Weekend estimates: Freaky top at the box office in an ailing theatrical market

November 22nd, 2020

Freaky will remain top at the domestic box office this weekend in spite of a steep 66% decline from its opening weekend. Its win at the box office was practically guaranteed going into the weekend, with Vanguard, the only new wide release, playing in a more modest 1,375 theaters for indie distributor Gravitas Ventures (it is now projected to open with $400,000). Freaky’s steep decline was also expected, with our model predicting a $1.56 million weekend and a decline of 57%. The fact that it fell 20% short of that low figure is a measure of how audience attitudes are changing towards the theatrical experience as COVID-19 cases rise steeply across the United States. More...

Weekend estimates: Freaky fails to deliver

November 15th, 2020

Going into the weekend, hopes were high that Freaky could post the kind box office numbers needed to show momentum in the theatrical market. Instead, it’s falling well short of our prediction, and numbers from the rest of the films in the top six, including a sharp 55% decline by last week’s winner Let Him Go, are also mostly disappointing. Instead of an increase in top six box office this weekend, we’re looking at a market that’s still flat, or even declining. What went wrong? More...

Weekend estimates: Let Him Go tops expectations with $4 million opening

November 8th, 2020

Let Him Go is pulling off a comfortable win at the box office this weekend, according to studio projections released on Sunday morning. Its $4.1-million opening is the third-best result during the pandemic, behind Tenet’s $20.2 million and The New Mutants’s $7.0 million, and slightly ahead of Unhinged’s $4.0 million, assuming the final numbers hold on Monday. While this is undoubtedly good news, which pushes the total for the top six close to $10 million for the first time in a while, the evidence points towards this being more a case of one film connecting with audiences rather than a significant market improvement. More...

Weekend estimates: Come Play scores solid Halloween win

November 1st, 2020

Come Play is outperforming expectations and set for a comfortable weekend win, according to studio projections released on Sunday morning. Its $3.15-million debut is a little behind other recent chart toppers like Honest Thief and The War with Grandpa, both of which picked up $3.6-million openings, but it’s also comfortably ahead of our pre-weekend prediction of $2.2 million.

Is this better-than-expected performance a sign of a strengthening market? Unfortunately not. More...

Weekend predictions: Honest Thief set for second weekend win

October 23rd, 2020

Honest Thief has some theoretical competition at the box office this weekend, but the marketing for The Empty Man has been negligible, and its 2,027 theater count is not enough for there to be much chance that we’ll see a change at the top of the chart. The lack of new films also points to a down week at the box office overall, at a time when the industry could desperately do with some good news. More...

Weekend estimates: Honest Thief wins weekend with $3.7 million

October 18th, 2020

Honest Thief will top the domestic box office this weekend with a $3.7 million opening that is in line with expectations, and provides more evidence that the theatrical business is at least stable in the United States. Relatively good numbers for the re-release of The Nightmare Before Christmas bolster that argument, although 2 Hearts is underperforming hopes. Overall, it’s a story of two steps forward, one step back. More...

Weekend estimates: The War with Grandpa pulls off surprise win

October 11th, 2020

Although the theatrical market is still in the doldrums, The War with Grandpa is providing some welcome good news this weekend with a surprise win. 101 Studios is projecting $3.608 million for the weekend, which is more than double our prediction, and wouldn’t be a particularly surprising result for a film like this from a new distributor under normal circumstances. Its performance raises some interesting questions about what films will and won’t work in theaters at the moment. More...

Weekend predictions: Grandpa unlikely to challenge Tenet

October 8th, 2020

The War with Grandpa opens in 2,250 theaters this weekend, making it the first truly-wide new release since Infidel back on September 25. Family movies have generally looked weak during the pandemic, but Hocus Pocus did surprisingly well last weekend, earning $1.925 million. Given Grandpa’s wider release and relative freshness, it might have a shot at toppling Tenet from the top of the chart, although our model thinks that’s unlikely. In fact, the re-release of Coco might have a better chance. More...

Weekend estimates: Tenet still top, reaches $300 million worldwide, Hocus Pocus surprises

October 4th, 2020

The best that can be said about this weekend at the box office is that a movie is doing better than expected. However, to put that in perspective, the movie in question is a re-release of a film that opened in fourth place back in 1993, and earned four times as much on its original opening weekend (when ticket prices were less than half what they are now) as it did this weekend. The movie, of course, is Hocus Pocus, and its $1.925 million weekend is a welcome surprise for a film that will presumably be drawing more of a family audience than the other films in release right now (Disney has not reported any demographic information for the film). More...

Monthly preview: October will be a horror show

September 30th, 2020

A month ago, October’s line-up of new releases looked weak, but also suggested the movie industry was planning for a steady recovery. The last few weeks have blown that optimism out the water. Wonder Woman 1984, Death on the Nile, and Candyman have all moved from their planned October release dates, and Black Widow has retreated from the first week of November to May next year. 20th Century Studios (i.e., Disney) threw theaters a tiny bone in the form of The Empty Man, which moved up to October 23, but the message is clear: a recovery in the theatrical business is still a long way away, if it comes at all. More...

Weekend estimates: Tenet leads lackluster weekend

September 27th, 2020

This was never going to be a weekend for the record books, but the estimates released on Sunday morning reveal a theatrical market that’s barely clinging to life. With no major new releases, Tenet will win by default, but its $3.4 million projected weekend is down 28% from last time around, and the market as a whole looks as though it has weakened by about 20% in the last seven days. The biggest new release of the weekend is almost certainly Break the Silence: The Movie, which is rumored to have opened with around $1 million, putting it in a tie for third with Unhinged. The New Mutants remains in second place, with Disney projecting $1.147 million for the weekend. More...

Weekend predictions: movies are showing better legs during the pandemic

September 24th, 2020

Disney’s announcement earlier this week that it is moving its upcoming MCU releases into 2021, starting with Black Widow taking over Shang Chi’s previous slot on May 7, was a body-blow to the theatrical business. October’s release schedule is now looking very thin indeed. November isn’t looking much better, and there’s a high probability that at least one of No Time to Die, Soul, and The Croods: A New Age will slip from their current planned release dates.

This weekend has four films technically opening wide: the re-release of The Empire Strikes Back, Shortcut (an Italian horror movie from Gravitas Ventures, opening in around 600 locations), and two movies honoring Ruth Bader Ginsberg, On the Basis of Sex and RBG. However, all of them are such special cases that they don’t fit our prediction model. Instead, I’ll focus on a rare piece of good news: films currently playing in theaters are showing better week-to-week legs than was the case before the pandemic. More...

Weekend estimates: Infidel posts solid opening, under the circumstances

September 20th, 2020

It looks as though we’ll have another down weekend for total domestic box office, with perhaps $11 million in combined ticket sales for all movies, compared to $12.3 million last weekend, but there are a few small grains of good news to be found. Infidel topped (very modest) expectations, with a projected opening of $1.5 million, and the four other films still playing in wide release that have reported so far all had relatively good holds by historical standards. Tenet hit the $250 million mark worldwide, but Mulan continues to struggle.

Here are the details… More...

Weekend estimates: Mulan posts disappointing $23.2 million opening in China, Tenet crosses $200 million worldwide

September 13th, 2020

The return of major new theatrical releases in the United States is great news for the industry, but this past few days have shown just how tough it will be to recover from the effects of the pandemic. After Tenet’s seemingly not-too-good, not-too-bad opening last weekend, two studios revealed what they really thought at end of the week, with Warner Bros. pushing Wonder Woman 1984 back to December 25, and Universal shifting Candyman to sometime in 2021. Clearly business isn’t good enough (yet) to support movies that could be very profitable under normal circumstances.

Warner Bros. and Universal do earn some credit for sticking with a theatrical strategy for the films, at least for now. Disney, meanwhile, have (amongst other things) been criticized for releasing Mulan on Disney+ here in the United States, and didn’t get the best of news this weekend for their international theatrical strategy, as the film rolled out in China with a modest $23.2 million.

New numbers for Tenet, and an opening weekend estimate for The Broken Hearts Gallery also give us new insight into progress in the domestic market.

Here’s a round-up of the weekend numbers released so far. More...

Weekend prediction: The Broken Hearts Gallery

September 10th, 2020

With theaters slowly reopening in North America, albeit with significant capacity restrictions, and new releases returning to theaters after a long, lonely, Summer, we thought it was time to take a look at our weekend predictions. Traditionally, these have been compiled through a combination of research and judgment, much like the predictions you’ll see on many web sites, trade publications, and newspapers. While our predictions have always stacked up well compared to everyone else, going forwards we wanted to do something that more closely embodies the ethos of The Numbers: providing objective, data-based analysis of the movie industry.

I’m pleased to announce our new weekend previews, which will be based on a model we’re developing that uses our huge database of movie box office and metadata to predict the weekend box office for movies currently playing in theaters. The prediction model debuts this week with an analysis of Sony’s The Broken Hearts Gallery, and we’ll be refining and expanding the model and predictions over the weeks to come. More...

Weekend Estimates: Tenet Debuts to $20.2 Million Domestically, Heads to $150 Million Worldwide

September 6th, 2020

On an historic weekend for the movie industry, the two biggest releases of the year so far are going head-to-head in a battle to win over audiences using very different strategies. Tenet is making its debut in theaters domestically, after posting a very respectable $53 million internationally last weekend. Mulan, meanwhile, is making its debut as a Premium VOD release on Disney+ where the streaming service is available, and in theaters in other markets.

Warner Bros. is reporting $20.2 million from 2,810 locations domestically for Tenet “through the Labor Day holiday weekend” (which presumably means including previews and projected grosses for Sunday and Monday), and another $58.3 million internationally, for an international total of $126 million and a global cume of $146.2 million so far.

Disney is claiming a strong opening for Mulan in a handful of small international markets, with $5.9 million for the weekend. The real action for that movie is online, of course, for which no figures have been reported, or are expected.

Here are the details to date. More...

Limited and Virtual Releases: Owners of a Lonely List

September 4th, 2020

It is the start of the Labor Day long weekend and to celebrate, Tenet is getting the widest release since March and Mulan is becoming the biggest film to ever premiere on VOD. And perhaps most baffling of all, the Canucks are still not eliminated from the Stanley Cup playoffs. With all that’s happening, the limited releases are more of an afterthought this week. The Owners is the latest horror film to get a limited release this year and since horror is the only genre with a consistent record at the box office, it could do well. More...

Weekend Predictions: Tenet Set to Tame a Chaotic Box Office

September 2nd, 2020

The chaos that is 2020 continues this long weekend. Usually Labor Day marks the official end of the summer blockbuster season, but in 2020 up is down, left is right, and the Canucks still haven’t been eliminated from the Stanley Cup playoffs. With all of this turmoil, it kind of makes sense that the first summer blockbuster getting released this year, Tenet, is coming out on the last weekend of summer. It is the only wide release of the week, and, while The New Mutants and Unhinged will still be in many theaters, they simply won’t be able to compete with Christopher Nolan’s latest epic. More...

September Preview: Tenet Heads a Month with a Wide Release Planned Every Weekend

September 1st, 2020

We finally had some wide releases in August, and things went well, relatively speaking. Antebellum was pulled from the schedule at the last minute, leaving Unhinged as the only semi-wide release for the weekend of August 21, and that helped it open better than anticipated with $4 million. Then The New Mutants had the best opening since the pandemic first caused theaters to close, with $7 million last weekend.

That record won’t last long as Tenet is now playing in US theaters, officially as an “Early Access” release on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, then “In Theaters” (which seems to be basically the same thing, only more so) from Thursday. It should outpace The New Mutants’ running tally, and maybe as early as its opening day. Not only will it have the biggest opening in months, it should stay in first place for the entire month, mainly due to a lack of competition. Three other films are getting wide releases, and each on their own weekend, so there’s no competition between them; however, that’s the end of the good news as the buzz for all three films is quiet. In fact, the buzz for Antebellum is in some ways louder, and that will be going direct to Apple TV on September 18.

Here’s the complete rundown of major movies coming to theaters this month. More...

Tenet Starts International Rollout with $53 Million Weekend

August 30th, 2020

Tenet’s long-awaited global rollout finally started this weekend, and the results are good enough for Warner Bros. to claim victory. Christopher Nolan’s sci-fi action movie opened with $53 million in total, including $7.1 million the United Kingdom (with a 74% market share), $6.7 million in France (68% market share), $5.1 million in Korea (80% share), and $4.2 million in Germany (60% share). While those numbers aren’t massive by historical standards in those bigger markets, the film actually set some all-time records in smaller territories. More...

Weekend Estimates: New Mutants Posts $7 Million Opening

August 30th, 2020

Although the war for survival of the theatrical business is only beginning, The New Mutants is at least winning a small early battle by posting an opening weekend that is in line with expectations. In fact, the film will exactly hit our pre-weekend prediction of $7 million, according to Disney’s Sunday morning projection.

Beyond the top-line number, signals are mixed. Mutants’ theater average of $2,903 is better than Unhinged’s $2,206 last weekend, but its box office fell on both Saturday and Sunday, suggesting poor word of mouth. Unhinged itself is down 35% from last weekend, even though it gained an extra 508 theaters. The other new releases were weak (although what a joy to see something new). More...

International Round Up: The Eight Hundred Lights Up Chinese Theaters

August 27th, 2020

The international markets were dominated at the weekend by The Eight Hundred’s blockbuster release in China. It was expected to do well, but a a seven-day opening “weekend” of $113.4 million ($115.4 million including previews) is beyond expectations, given the 50% capacity restrictions in Chinese theaters. It is actually more than Hobbs & Shaw earned this time last year, and helped the box office more than triple compared to last week. Granted, Hobbs & Shaw only had four days at the box office and not seven, but this is still a spectacular opening.

Performance around the rest of the world was more mixed, but there are some hopeful signs as Tenet starts its long-anticipated rollout. More...

International Round Up: Deliver Us from Box Office Doldrums

August 13th, 2020

South Korea had an explosive weekend with Deliver Us From Evil earning the best opening in that market since January. The film pulled in $10.59 million on 1,997 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $15.03 million. There is still some bad news in the market though. For instance, Steel Rain 2: Summit fell 70% from last weekend to $1.49 million on 1,016 screens for a total of $10.74 million so far. Peninsula fell a further 67% to $748,000 on 639 screens for a total of $27.08 million after four weeks of release. These are sharp declines, even for South Korea, which isn’t known for long legs. That said, they are not a disaster. Additionally, while the overall box office is only about half of what it was this weekend last year, there are still restrictions in seating capacity in theaters and the lack of depth are still factors, so it appears the box office is in shape to truly bounce back once the situation has returned to normal. More...

New Tenet Trailer

May 22nd, 2020

Sci-fi thriller starring John David Washington, written and directed by Christopher Nolan, still shooting to open on July 17 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Tenet Trailer

December 19th, 2019

Sci-fi thriller starring John David Washington, written and directed by Christopher Nolan, opens July 17 ... Full Movie Details. More...