The Numbers - Box Office Data, Movie Stars, Idle Speculation
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Monday, November 23, 2009

News Stories About How to Deal

Dog Days of Summer Opens with Four Duds

2003-08-15

movies opening wide this week, and with such a crowded market at least two will bomb. And considering the dubious quality of the release, they could all fail to make much of an impact. With so many new openings I'm going to profile them first and then deal with the rest of the top five after.

Freddy vs. Jason - Ten years too late. The Friday the 13th and Nightmare on Elm Street franchises are some of the longest lasting with a combines 17 films between them. But despite this they have less than $450 million domestic box office. That's less than Austin Powers has made in just 3 movies. Predictions for this movie go as high as $30 million, but that's more 10 of the previous films earned in their entire run. And the people who grew up with the franchises have grown up themselves and are unlikely to see another slasher movie. Reviews are about what you would expect, 33% overall and about half that for the cream of the crop. Look for about $15 million this weekend and about $35 million overall.

Uptown Girls - MGM misses again. This is the eighth movie released by MGM/UA this year, and so far only one has beaten expectations (Agent Cody Banks) and one other will be profitable (Legally Blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde.) Normally I'd give this movie an extra boost given it's target audience, but this year there has been several movies aimed at similar audiences from What a Girl Wants to The Lizzie McGuire Movie to the more recent How to Deal and Freaky Friday. Unfortunately for MGM, reviews are closer to How to Deal than Freaky Friday. And so will the box office. $10 million this week, but with better legs it could top Freddy vs. Jason's $35 million.

Open Range - The Best reviewed wide release of the week. In fact, its score of 77% is higher than the other three movies combined. Too bad it is also the smallest release of the four opening in just over 2000 theatres. Recently Kevin Costner movies haven't performed well at the box office, and chances are good reviews won't save this one. $8 million opening weekend and good word of mouth will be its only hope.

Grind - Worse reviews that Gigli? As I'm writing this Grind is currently sitting at only 8% positive, which's the same score as Gigli. However, even Gigli had one cream of the crop reviewer give it a positive review, the same can't be said for Grind. The only thing going for this movie is it is relatively unknown, so at least there's no negative buzz surrounding it. $5 million opening weekend before dropping out of theatres by September.

If I lived in Cleveland I'd be checking out American Splendor this weekend. Since I don't I'll see if any of the local theatres are playing Passionada. If not, well, I've got a pretty good DVD collection I could dip into.

Now on to the holdovers. Repeating at top spot will be S.W.A.T., not due to its quality, just because there's so little competition this week. It will stop roughly 55%, but that still leaves $16 million, good enough for first place.

Freaky Friday will drop one spot to land in third. A weekend total of $14 million will raise its run to nearly $60 million. More than it cost to make and advertise.

Making one more appearance in the top 5 will be Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl. It's just $100,000 from beating Bruce Almighty for third place this year. It is starting to slow down and the race for 2nd place is becoming more interesting. $9 million this weekend will leave it just short of the $250 million mark.

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Bad Boys do Good at the Box Office

2003-07-21

ee wide releases was able to match predictions, however, better than expected performances from the holdovers helped the box office rise 3.65% from last weekend, and nearly 25% from last year.

Pulling in more in its first day than the original did its first weekend was Bad Boys II. Finishing first was expected, but the $46.5 million did beat expectations. Two factors make long term success doubtful. First, the reviews were bad at just 26%. Second, the movie is a sequel and recent history is pretty clear on how sequels do.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl second weekend was better than expected, with a smaller drop-off than even Finding Nemo. Pirates hauled in $34.o million, only 27% lower than last weekend. It broke the $100 million milestone in just 10 days and surpassed its production budget in just 12. Needless to say, there is a sequel in the works.

For the second week in a row The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen has done better that expected. This has more to do with really low expectations than with a genuinely good showing at the box office. Its second weekend total was $10.2 million, down only 56%. While bad, is not the complete collapse predicted.

With Terminator 3 falling faster than predicted, Arnold Schwarzenegger seems destined to start a career in politics. In its third week it could only must $9.3 million. For a movie that cost between $170 to $200 million to make, that is unacceptable.

Also Finishing a little weaker than I predicted was British comedy Johnny English. Only making $9.1 million may seem like a disappointment, but the movie has already made more than $100 million overseas. So whatever it makes in its domestic run is icing on the cake. Reviews are quite a bit better than the other two openers, but at only 37% that's not much of a compliment.

Mandy Moore's latest movie earned less than half what her previous movie earned its opening weekend. Even assuming a budget south of $20 million, its initial take of just $5.8 million must be seen as a disappointment. And the reviews don't suggest better results in the weeks to come.

Not only did Finding Nemo crack the $300 million club and top Star Wars: Attack of the Clones it did it with $7.3 million, quite a bit more than the weekend's predictions. Up next for this summer's unstoppable movie, Independence Day, which it should beat mid-week and Return of the Jedi which it will beat by next weekend.

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Will it be the Bad Boys' weekend, or just plain bad?

2003-07-18

pening this week, only one is opening in more than 3000 theatres. It is getting the majority of the press and others will have to fight for the scraps.

Almost guaranteed to lead the box office, for one week anyway, is the sequel Bad Boys II. This is the widest release of the week at just under 3200 theatres, it is also the worst reviewed release of the week. Although it might switch with How to Deal before the weekend is over. The original made roughly $15 million during it's opening weekend and $65 million overall. Bad Boys II's opening will land right in the middle of those two figures. $40 million and a chance to become the first movie to open with more than $40 million to fail to make $100 million total box office.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl has a chance to do what no movie has done since Finding Nemo, not collapse on its second weekend of release. Word of mouth for this film is excellent and it should finish the weekend with $30 million.

The next three spots will be very close together.

Terminator 3 will finish third for the second week in a row with just over $10 million. While that's an improvement over last weekend's drop, it's still too high considering Terminator 3's price tag.

Rowan Atkinson has a huge following internationally, but that has never translated into domestic box office gold. Johnny English is the best reviewed new movie of the week, but at 42% that speaks more to the poor quality of its competition than its own strength. At 2,236, it also had the smallest release of the three wide releases. Johnny English has already made $100 million internationally, but it will have to settle for $10 million opening weekend and approximately $30 million overall.

How to Deal has a shade more theatres than Johnny English, and a tiny fraction better reviews at Rotten Tomatoes than Bad Boys II, (currently less than 0.4% better.) But it will have to settle for fifth place with just under $10 million. (I told you they were close.)

In other box office news, Finding Nemo will earn almost $6 million to top $300 million for its run. This will put it ahead of Star Wars: Attack of the Clones and into 14th place. At this pace, a spot in the top ten is a real possibility.

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Movie Websites Launches for July 10 - July 16

2003-07-16

k promotional websites for several movies were launched and some older ones added additional content. Here’s a list of highlights, plus one last look at websites for films opening this week. If you know of any new movie websites not on this list feel free to e-mail me with the details.


American Wedding
Current Content: The flash site launched this week, and while there is a few sections marked coming soon, most of the site is up. The starting section has good background music, which is not too short and loops well. It also has bubble rising up the left side and when you move the mouse over these bubbles they show clips of the movie. A lot of this site is interactive, a lot more than most sites. Trivia game, Stiffler's Learn to Boogie, Save the Cake, and more. Most of what's marked coming soon is the usual features. The trailer and synopsis is there, but cast and crew bios, production notes and clips are all marked coming soon.


The Anarchists Cookbook
Current Content: This site spends most of its time on character bios. The only other content is the trailer, a few reviews, cast and crew (no bios) and the poster that you can buy.


Bad Boys II
Current Content: Issue 5 launched with the usual four sections. Story contains bios and interviews with the cast and crew. Video has three clips from the movie, most of which has already been seen in the trailers and TV spots. There are six more images in the gallery and one wallpaper and one screensaver in Downloads. There's also a create your own Photo Album, but you have to be a member of Screenblasts to do so. There's a lot of content, and still one more issue to go. And so, it truly deserving the willy-nilly Weekly Website Award.


The Chosen One
Current Content: I found this site while trying to research upcoming traditional animation. Far from being traditional, this film will be done in flash animation. So far the site has a synopsis, character bios, crew bios, and under the news section a teaser trailer. Note: In the teaser is says the movie would be released in 2002. That obviously didn't happen. They are now aiming for a 2004 release date, and I'll keep you informed on how that progresses.


Civil Brand
Current Content: Just a placeholder site till the regular site launches. So far just the trailer is available.


Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star
Current Content: Another placeholder site launched this week. This time it has just the synopsis and a surprisingly funny trailer.


Dirty Pretty Things
Current Content: Nothing new since last week's review, so here it is. This site doesn't treat the movie like a movie. So while there's a synopsis and character bios, there's not mention of cast or crew or behind the scenes, etc. There is a trailer, but even that's is off-site. There's not much in the way of sound or animation, which is a shame.


Freaky Friday
Current Content: Fitting in with the theme of the movie, this site has two sides. The Tess side, with trailer, synopsis, crew (bios coming soon) and more. The Anna side has trailer, synopsis, cast (bios coming soon) photos, downloads and more. You can also press the Get Freaky button to have the two switch bodies. The site has good sound effects and some audio clips, but could use some background music. There's plenty of content still marked coming soon, so that could be added later on.


Garage Days
Current Content: This site as twice the content most sites do. From text like the synopsis, production note, cast, crew and character bios to more multimedia oriented sections. There are dozens of images spread throughout the site. Pre-production, behind the scenes, and even a massive crew shot. There are 360-degree virtual tours of some of the film sets. Videos include the trailer and several interviews with cast and crew. And while there are sound effects (guitar cords), there is no music, which is strange for a movie based around a garage band.


Gigli
Current Content: The trailer was added to the site.


Honey
Current Content: This is the first site I looked at for the Weekly column. And in all that time it's always just been the synopsis, cast and crew (no bios) and two images. Now they have all that, and a release date. Of course, since I checked the site out last, the release date has changed. So it's more of a theoretical release date, as opposed to something you should make plans around.


How to Deal
Current Content: It took me just a few seconds at this site to realize I'm not in its target audience, so writing a review for it is a little more difficult. There's a trailer, synopsis, cast and crew bios, quite a few clips from the movie, photo gallery, etc. There are also personality quizzes, relationship report cards, dating advice and other stuff that proves my feelings about the target audience and me. There are two whole songs that play in the background, but they are compressed enough to reduce the sound quality too much.


Johnny English
Current Content: No chances since the last time I reviewed the site. But the last time I reviewed the site it won the Weekly Website Award, so no changes were needed.


Madame Satã
Current Content: A simple design that would have benefited with some more formatting. For instance, the Press book section is just one long page filled with the synopsis, introduction, cast and crew bios, director's statement, etc. It would have been best if these were separated into their own pages, at the very least. In addition to the information found on that page, there is the trailer and an interview with writer director Karim Aïnouz.


Matchstick Men
Current Content: This would be a great site, if there were any sound. It has a lot of information, especially in the Production Notes section. Synopsis, cast and crew bios, screensaver, wallpapers, buddy icons, poster. There's even animated segues. So why there's no sounds is beyond me. However, there is a section for the soundtrack marked, coming soon. So there's hope sounds will be added later on.


The Medallion
Current Content: One of the features I like the most is background music. This site has background music, but the clip is less that four seconds long, so it becomes repetitive way too quickly. There's not much content overall, synopsis, trailer, character bios (cast bios are marked coming soon) images, wallpapers and e-cards. The best part is the game simply called, The Mission. Reminds me of a Double Dragon type game.


Spy Kids 3D - Game Over
Current Content: Another site that's been reviewed before where the flash site was just launched. So far just to first two levels are in place (Arena of Misfortune and Megarace.) As you explore these areas you unlock additional content for the main menu, (Synopsis, character bios, images, clips and build your own wallpaper.) So far this site is only half-way complete and it already looks great.


The Texas Chainsaw Massacre
Current Content: So far just the trailer, the poster and nine images are on this site. But it's three months till the latest release date, and I expect at least one more delay from there.


This Thing of Ours
Current Content: The most unique feature of this site is the TV footage. Not TV spots, but footage of shows such as eXtra and Court TV talking about the movie. Most of which seems to talk about Danny Provenzano alleged mob connections. Besides this, the rest of the content is pretty sparse. Trailer, cast and crew (no bios), image gallery, etc. There's no sound effects and only two short music clips from the soundtrack.


Submitted by: C.