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Friday, August 1, 2014

Predicted Oscar Winners

The Numbers' annual Oscar polls have proved to be remarkably accurate predictors of the final results on Oscar night. Each year we publish our most confident predictions in the days leading up to awards night, and we really stick our necks out on Oscar day by predicting the results in all categories.

We call results based on the hundreds of Numbers readers who vote in our Predict the Oscars competition.

We've received all the votes now, and are ready to make predictions in all categories. Percentage figures are the percentage of Numbers readers who believe a movie or performance will win in a particular category. They are a rough guide to how likely a particular movie is to win in a category - for example, we're pretty certain Chicago will win Best Picture, while we think Spirited Away is, by a fraction, the most likely winner of Best Animated Film.

Click here to see the complete vote tallies in each category.

Best Picture Chicago  (69.86%)
Animated Feature Sen to Chihiro no Kamikakushi  (40.91%)
Directing Gangs of New York Martin Scorsese (56.26%)
Actress in a Leading Role The Hours Nicole Kidman (58.18%)
Actor in a Leading Role Gangs of New York Daniel Day-Lewis (54.17%)
Actor in a Supporting Role Adaptation Chris Cooper (43.09%)
Actress in a Supporting Role Chicago Catherine Zeta-Jones (44.49%)
Art Direction Chicago  (39.49%)
Cinematography Chicago  (31.09%)
Costume Design Chicago  (64.59%)
Film Editing The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers  (49.00%)
Foreign Language Film El crimen de padre Amaro  (38.24%)
Makeup Frida  (79.15%)
Music (Score) The Hours  (40.71%)
Music (Song) Gangs of New York The Hands that Built America, Music and lyric by Bono, The Edge, Adam Clayton and Lurry Mullen (49.44%)
Sound The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers  (63.02%)
Sound Editing The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers  (85.33%)
Visual Effects The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers  (83.91%)
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) Adaptation  (36.88%)
Writing (Original Screenplay) My Big Fat Greek Wedding  (41.33%)
Documentary Feature Bowling for Columbine (87.76%)
Documentary - Short Subject Twin Towers (72.63%)
Short Film - Animated Mike's New Car (55.60%)
Short Film - Live Action This Charming Man (32.02%)

Check back after the event to see how we did...