July 4th, 2016
It's a strange week on the home market, as there are no first-run releases and very few other releases to make up the difference. There are some contenders for Pick of the Week, but all of them are foreign-language films, which is again odd. In fact, two of them, Only Yesterday and The Boy and the World, are animated. However, in the end, I went with The Mermaid, which deserves to be seen by more and Blu-ray is a great way to see it.
November 17th, 2015
There was only one new release in the $10,000 club and it had to settle for third place on the per theater chart. This left Spotlight in first place with an average of $22,561 in 60 theaters. This is a great result for a film expanding from five to 60 theaters. Brooklyn also expanded, going from five theaters to 23 theaters, while its per theater average remained strong with an average of $20,868. James White was the only new release in the $10,000 club debuting with $12,007 in its lone theater.
November 15th, 2015
Sony are predicting a decline of just 50% for Spectre in its second weekend in theaters, putting James Bond’s latest incarnation on track for a final domestic box office in the neighborhood of $200 million. While well short of Skyfall’s $304 million, it welcome news for a film that’s probably right on the bubble as far as profitability is concerned.
November 11th, 2015
It is not a particularly strong week for limited releases, as there are none that really jump out as potential breakout successes. Man Up is earning some of the best reviews, but it is the wrong genre for limited release, as Rom Coms rarely do well enough in limited release to expand wide. (On a side note, one of the exceptions was My Big Fat Greek Wedding. The trailer for the sequel just came out. Nearly 15 years is a long time between the original and the sequel.) James White feels a lot more like a traditional limited release, one that can do really well in the art house circuit.
November 6th, 2015
It is a bit of a messed up week as far as the contest is concerned. I ended the Halloween trick or treat contests a week early, because I got the release date of Mr. Holmes wrong. I had already set aside the two sets of horror or the one set of bad movies, so I might as well give them away this week. Also, the contest is a mess, because the wide releases next week are a mess. By the Sea was dropped to limited release, while My All-American is opening semi-wide, so that's a reversal of expectations. This leaves The 33 and Love the Coopers as the only true wide releases, neither of which is expected to be a even a midlevel hit. Combined they are not expected to be a midlevel hit. Worse for me, neither is expected to be a significantly bigger hit than the other making it harder to choose which film will be the target film. I'm literally going to have to flip a coin. Love the Coopers is the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Love the Coopers.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
There is a difference this time. Two people will earn Frankenprizes consisting of two horror movies. The other winner will earn a Frankprize consisting of two "horror" movies, that is to say movies so bad that it will fill you with horror.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
November 1st, 2015
October has come to an end and everyone should be happy about that. Except for The Martian, there were no serious hits that opened last month. There were more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Fortunately, October of last year wasn't spectacular either, so 2015 maintains a healthy lead over 2014. Even more fortunately, November looks fantastic. There are four films that have the potential to earn $200 million or more. The biggest of these is the final Hunger Games movie, which should reach $400 million. Spectre has a real shot at $300 million and could be the biggest hit in the franchise. Meanwhile, nearly every November there's an animated kids movie that becomes a monster hit. This year, The Peanuts Movie and The Good Dinosaur are both aiming for that box office milestone. The last time we didn't have a family film that earned at least $100 million in November was 2011 and that's because there were four family films that opened in the final two weeks of the month and that much competition meant they cannibalized each other. Both of these has a shot at $200 million and if neither of them reached $200 million, I would be shocked. Meanwhile, last November was a good month at the top with three monster hits: The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1, Big Hero 6, and Interstellar. However, after those three films, there were not much positive to talk about. It really looks like 2015 will match 2014 at the top, plus it could have better depth. I might be a little too optimistic, but I think November is going to be a great month at the box office.