April 26th, 2017
There were only two films in the $10,000 club on this week's theater average chart and both of them were biographical documentaries. Interesting coincidence. Citizen Jane: Battle for the City led the way with an average of $15,726 in two theaters. Meanwhile, Jeremiah Tower: The Last Magnificent just managed to hit the $10,000 mark with an average of $10,134, also in two theaters.
April 4th, 2017
Wide releases again dominated the theater average chart taking two of the top three spots. This includes The Boss Baby, which led the way with $13,305. The only limited release in the $10,000 club was David Lynch: The Art Life with $10,823 in its lone theater. Last week’s champ, Beauty and the Beast, was right behind with an average of $10,789.
March 21st, 2017
Beauty and the Beast had the best theater average of 2017, so far, at $41,508. This puts it just ahead of Kedi, which opened with $40,103 in its lone theater. The second best average of the week was earned by T2: Trainspotting at $34,115 in five theaters, which is the third best average of the year so far. Song to Song was the only other film to earn an average above $10,000 over the weekend, pulling in $12,640 in four theaters. While Frantz didn’t quite get into the $10,000 club over the weekend, it came close with an average of $9,373. Furthermore, it was a Wednesday release and earned a five-date average of $11,470.
March 19th, 2017
Beauty and the Beast set out this weekend to show that it’s not just super heroes who can deliver big openings at the box office, and it’s doing so in some style. Disney is projecting a $170 million opening weekend for the live action fairytale, and the film is setting records around the world. At home, it’ll have the biggest March weekend of all time, and the fourth-best Saturday of all time. The studio is projecting it will have the sixth-best Sunday in history, although my money would be on it slightly outperforming today, for the fifth-best Sunday, and that it will challenge Iron Man 3’s $174 million for the sixth-best opening of all time. Only Star Wars, super heroes, and dinosaur-themed movies have done better on opening weekend.
March 18th, 2017
As expected, Beauty and the Beast earned first place on Friday. Its performance was a little better than expected, with Disney’s movie earning $63.79 million. To put this into perspective, this is more than Kong: Skull Island earned during its opening weekend. There are some confusing elements to deal with. Firstly, the reviews improved to 71% positive, which is still lower than anticipated, but good enough to not hurt the film’s legs. Additionally, it earned a solid A from CinemaScore. Strangely, the demographics changed, with women representing 72% of Friday’s audiences. That’s up from just under 60% during Thursday’s previews and a lot of times it goes in the other direction. So what does this mean for the future? The film just needs an internal multiplier above 2.6 to become the biggest March opening of all time. That seems very likely at this point. In fact, anything less than $175 million will be seen as a little disappointing.
March 17th, 2017
Beauty and the Beast scared away most of the wide-release competition and there are not many limited releases either this weekend. T2: Trainspotting is by far the biggest in terms of buzz. We also have a few like Mean Dreams, which have good reviews, but are playing on VOD. Or foreign-language films like Frantz.
March 9th, 2017
Like this weekend, there is only one truly wide release next weekend: Beauty and the Beast. The Belko Experiment is opening in just 1,200 theaters and it looks like T2: Transpotting is opening in even fewer theaters, 5 to be exact. Because it is the only truly wide release of the week, it is the only choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Beauty and the Beast.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
March 1st, 2017
February was an okay month. The films that missed expectations were mostly balanced by the films that were pleasant surprises. Unfortunately, last February was amazing as Deadpool dominated the chart, so 2017 has fallen further behind 2016 and 2016’s lead is now about $100 million. It is not so bad that a good March won’t help 2017 back into the lead. Will that happen? We have some good news and some bad news. Good news: Every week there is one movie that has at least a shot at $100 million. Two of them, Logan and Beauty and the Beast, could reach $200 million or a lot more. Bad News: last March, both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned more than $300 million. That’s a really powerful one-two punch and I don’t think we can replicate that this time around. On the other hand, last March, the third best film of the month was 10 Cloverfield Lane, while there were four films that were expected to open wide that earned less than $10 million at the box office. 2017 likely won’t be as good at the top, but I also don’t think it will have as many bombs either. If Beauty and the Beast reaches the very high end of expectations, then 2017 could even close the gap with 2016 entirely. I’ll be happy getting halfway there.