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Weekend Predictions: Leftovers are Getting Cold

December 1st, 2011

There are no wide releases opening this week, but that doesn't mean there definitely won't be a change at the top of the box office. The Fangirl Factor for The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 will likely eat away at its box office much more than the three family films, and this could leave The Muppets on top over the weekend. This is what happened last year with Tangled. Unfortunately for this year, Tangled started out much better and even if The Muppets holds on better as a percentage of its opening, that likely won't be enough to for the total box office to earn a win in the year-over-year comparison.

The Muppets earned close to $30 million over the three-day portion of last weekend and with Oscar-worthy reviews and a target demographic that tends to reward films with repeat ticket sales, it should climb into top spot this weekend with just over $16 million. It could be close, on the other hand.

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 could earn a hattrick this weekend, if it can keep ahead of The Muppets over the next three days. It had a substantial lead last weekend, but it looks like that won't be enough, as it could see its weekend haul plummet by just over 60%. That would still leave it with close to $16 million, meaning the two films will be in a virtual tie when the studio estimates come in on Sunday.

Hugo is earning some of the best reviews of the year. Additionally, its target demographic is split between families with kids and more mature adults and both groups tend to help a film's legs. I think it will have the best week-to-week decline and might even avoid a 30% drop-off. That would give the film a sophomore stint of $8 million, but I think just over $7 million is more likely. Either way, it bodes well for its future.

Arthur Christmas, The Descendants and Happy Feet 2 should be in a close race for fourth place earning between $6 million and $7 million. The Descendants and Arthur Christmas earned nearly identical reviews, but The Descendants should expand a bit more, giving it a small edge. Meanwhile, Happy Feet 2 will probably be the odd film out and miss the top five.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, Hugo, Happy Feet Two, Arthur Christmas, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1, The Descendants, The Muppets