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There are a few new releases hitting theaters tomorrow, but most people are still talking about Avatar and whether or not it can stay on top one more week, and perhaps set a few more records in the process. The other major question of the weekend is whether or not it will top last year and end 2010's one-week losing streak.

Odds are Avatar will come out on top at the box office again this weekend and it should not have any real trouble surpassing The Dark Knight on the All-time Chart in the process. It should also steal away another record from Titanic, namely the biggest sixth weekend, which is currently $25.24 million. Even low end expectations have it pulling in $25 million, so at the very least it should be competitive. On the high end, it could parlay its two Golden Globe wins into an additional $35 million, or more, over the weekend. I think the low end is a little more realistic, but even $28 or $29 million over the weekend will give the film $545 million in total, while would put it on pace to top Titanic's total sooner rather than later.

The widest new release of the week is The Tooth Fairy at 3,344 theaters. It's clear by this number that Fox, and theater owners, have confidence in the movie, something not reflected in the reviews, as the film's Tomatometer score is barely ahead of The Spy Next Door and that film made less than $10 million during its opening weekend. Perhaps Dwayne Johnson will prove to be a bigger draw among families than Jackie Chan was; after all, he has more experience with this target audience having starred in Race to Witch Mountain and The Game Plan. That said, I can't imagine the movie earning enough to truly justify all those theaters. Even $20 million might be out of the question. Maybe it will get there, but just over $18 million seems a little more likely.

Legion is the second apocalyptic film with a religious angle to come out in the past two weeks. Of course, The Book of Eli was post-apocalypse and this film is pre-apocalypse, but the similarities are still too great to be ignored. Legion does not have a lot of star power, though, and its reviews are missing, presumed terrible. The only good news is the lack of expectations, and if it can pull in $17 million and place third, Sony should be happy.

The Book of Eli should slip into fourth place, but it could be close and it could surprise and finish in second place. If it can avoid a 50% drop and place second, then its chances at $100 million improve dramatically. If it falls off just over 50% to under $16 million, then its chance at $100 million will take a hit, but it will still be possible. The low end is more likely. Look for just over $16 million over the weekend and just over $60 million in total.

The final wide release of the week is Extraordinary Measures, which only has a 50/50 chance of reaching the top five. Its reviews are weak, its advertising campaign is weaker, and despite two lead actors with past box office success, it seems likely that this film will struggle just to become a midlevel hit. Look for an opening of $9 million, which will put it in a virtual tie with The Lovely Bones for the final spot in the top five.

- C.S.Strowbridge One More Week for Avatar? - The Numbers

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One More Week for Avatar?

January 21st, 2010

There are a few new releases hitting theaters tomorrow, but most people are still talking about Avatar and whether or not it can stay on top one more week, and perhaps set a few more records in the process. The other major question of the weekend is whether or not it will top last year and end 2010's one-week losing streak.

Odds are Avatar will come out on top at the box office again this weekend and it should not have any real trouble surpassing The Dark Knight on the All-time Chart in the process. It should also steal away another record from Titanic, namely the biggest sixth weekend, which is currently $25.24 million. Even low end expectations have it pulling in $25 million, so at the very least it should be competitive. On the high end, it could parlay its two Golden Globe wins into an additional $35 million, or more, over the weekend. I think the low end is a little more realistic, but even $28 or $29 million over the weekend will give the film $545 million in total, while would put it on pace to top Titanic's total sooner rather than later.

The widest new release of the week is The Tooth Fairy at 3,344 theaters. It's clear by this number that Fox, and theater owners, have confidence in the movie, something not reflected in the reviews, as the film's Tomatometer score is barely ahead of The Spy Next Door and that film made less than $10 million during its opening weekend. Perhaps Dwayne Johnson will prove to be a bigger draw among families than Jackie Chan was; after all, he has more experience with this target audience having starred in Race to Witch Mountain and The Game Plan. That said, I can't imagine the movie earning enough to truly justify all those theaters. Even $20 million might be out of the question. Maybe it will get there, but just over $18 million seems a little more likely.

Legion is the second apocalyptic film with a religious angle to come out in the past two weeks. Of course, The Book of Eli was post-apocalypse and this film is pre-apocalypse, but the similarities are still too great to be ignored. Legion does not have a lot of star power, though, and its reviews are missing, presumed terrible. The only good news is the lack of expectations, and if it can pull in $17 million and place third, Sony should be happy.

The Book of Eli should slip into fourth place, but it could be close and it could surprise and finish in second place. If it can avoid a 50% drop and place second, then its chances at $100 million improve dramatically. If it falls off just over 50% to under $16 million, then its chance at $100 million will take a hit, but it will still be possible. The low end is more likely. Look for just over $16 million over the weekend and just over $60 million in total.

The final wide release of the week is Extraordinary Measures, which only has a 50/50 chance of reaching the top five. Its reviews are weak, its advertising campaign is weaker, and despite two lead actors with past box office success, it seems likely that this film will struggle just to become a midlevel hit. Look for an opening of $9 million, which will put it in a virtual tie with The Lovely Bones for the final spot in the top five.

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Filed under: The Tooth Fairy, The Book of Eli, Avatar, The Lovely Bones, Legion, Extraordinary Measures