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In Fashion

July 10th, 2009

There's a bit of a lull in blockbusters this week with no saturation level releases coming out, but that's not to say there isn't a potential $100 million movie. Compared to last year, the selection of new releases are not as strong, but overall 2009 might keep pace with 2008.

The only new release with a shot at first place in Bruno, which is practically a sequel to Borat, at least in terms of tone and target audience, and also when it comes to predicting its box office potential. Sacha Baron Cohen's previous film opened with $26.46 million and went on to earn $128.51 million in total. I'm thinking this film will make almost as much as that film did, but will have a more normal run in terms of legs. This is in part due to pseudo-sequelitis and partially due to the weaker reviews. Granted, its reviews are good, but not nearly as good as Borat's reviews were, and this will have an effect. I'm looking for an opening weekend of $37 million, and a total run of $120 million. This should be more than enough to make the studio happy, but given how famous Sacha Baron Cohen has become, this is very likely the last film like this he will be able to make. On the other hand, there's a chance Borat was a one-hit-wonder and Bruno could open with about $25 million, which could leave it in second or third place.

Ice Age - Dawn of the Dinosaurs should remain in second place. The lack of direct competition will help, but the mixed reviews will result in fewer animation aficionados showing up for a second look. The consensus seems to be that the film will earn $26 million over the weekend, while it will cross $100 million on Friday. This is faster than the first movie reached that milestone, but a day behind the second film's pace. Thanks to kids being out of school, midweek numbers are strong and the film should finish with $175 million.

Bruno offers somewhat direct competition for Transformers - Revenge of the Fallen, which will push the film into third place with $20 to $25 million. The better Bruno does, the weaker this movie will do. That said, this film already has $300 million, reaching that mark in just 14 days, and if it is lucky, it could reach $400 million in total. Even if it misses that milestone, the studio should be more than happy and will be looking forward a third, and most likely, a fourth installment.

Public Enemies hasn't shown quite the legs I would like, and there's a chance it could fall more than 50% at the box office this weekend. This would be really bad news and make reaching $100 million difficult. Hopefully it will avoid that fate and pull in $14 million over the weekend for a total of $67 million after two.

The Proposal reached $100 million yesterday, making it one of just a handful of romantic comedies to reach that milestone. Over the weekend, the film could add $8 million to its total giving it over $110 million after four weeks of release.

Finally we get to I Love You, Beth Cooper. Thanks to terrible reviews and a sub-2,000 opening theater count, most analysts are not expecting big things from this movie. At the high end it could come close to $10 million and reach fifth place. On the low end, some think it could fail to reach the Mendoza Line, which would leave it with less than $4 million. I'm going with $5 million over the weekend and $13 million in total. This is well below original expectations, but I was expecting mixed reviews and a higher opening theater count. Not to mention a more aggressive ad campaign.

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Filed under: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, The Proposal, Public Enemies, Brüno, I Love You, Beth Cooper