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Box Office War

July 1st, 2005

The Independence Day long weekend is one of the most important weekends on the calendar. However, there will likely be little celebrating once the numbers start coming in. Simply put, the target needed to break The Slump is too high and there's almost no chance of breaking it this weekend.

The main factor standing in the way of stopping the slump this weekend is War of the Worlds, which was merely able to live up to expectations on Wednesday. What's worse, the reviews went from perfect on Monday, to one of the best wide release on Tuesday, to good but not great on Wednesday and now sit at just 72% positive. That's not bad, but it's nowhere near the level Spider-Man 2 earned and it is that film that War of the Worlds is doomed to be compared to. Regardless, the film is still on track to earn $65 to $70 million over the weekend or $80 - $90 million including Monday.

Batman Begins will certainly drop to second place, but the real question is how well will it hold up against War of the Worlds? The holidays will help, but the film will still drop precariously to $15 million over the 3-day weekend and $19 million including Monday. That will push the film's total box office past $150 million and, assuming it can match that internationally, that will be enough to show a small profit.

After beating expectations last weekend, Mr. and Mrs. Smith could really shine this weekend and remain in third place with $11 million / $14 million. Which should be just ahead of Bewitched, which will earn $10 million / $13 million.

Rounding out the top five will be the only other new wide release of the weekend, Rebound. The film's reviews are even weaker than I thought they would be and the film could struggle to hit $10 million over the three day weekend. Look for $9.5 million from Friday to Sunday and an additional $3 million on Monday.

Continuing Sith Watch, Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith will drop to just under $4 million over the weekend (just over $5 million if you include Monday). That won't be enough to lift it ahead of The Passion of the Christ on the All Time Charts, but it will cut the gap in half.

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Filed under: Star Wars Ep. III: Revenge of the Sith, War of the Worlds, Batman Begins, Mr. and Mrs. Smith, Bewitched, Rebound