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Numbers Readers Predicting Return of the King Oscar Sweep

February 29th, 2004

The final results are in from our Predict the Academy Awards Competition, and Numbers readers are forecasting a Lord of the Rings sweep at the ceremony tonight.

A stunning 90% of voters are calling for Lord of the Rings to win Best Picture and Peter Jackson to win Best Director - some of the strongest predictions we've seen in the 7 years we've been running the poll. The movie is also projected to win in every other category in which its nominated.

With no Rings stars nominated for acting awards though, some of the other results are still ripe for speculation.

The closest races involving Return of the King look like Art Direction, where Master and Commander looks like it has a chance, and Score, with Finding Nemo the other contender.

In the acting categories, there are 2 runaway favorites - Charlize Theron for Leading Actress and (perhaps surprisingly) Renee Zellweger for Supporting Actress. Johnny Depp has a handy lead in the Leading Actor category, but Bill Murray and Sean Penn are both within striking distance. The Supporting Actor race looks like a race between Tim Robbins and Ken Watanabe.

The acting categories throw up their fair share of surprises, so none of these predictions looks like a sure thing to me.

The closest race of all comes in the Original Screenplay section, where Numbers readers are evenly split between Lost in Translation and Finding Nemo. In the final analysis, Lost in Translation gets the nod by 1 vote.

Best Picture Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King  ( 91.17%)
Animated Feature Finding Nemo  ( 95.76%)
Directing Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King Peter Jackson ( 91.17%)
Actor in a Leading Role Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl Johnny Depp ( 44.42%)
Actress in a Leading Role Monster Charlize Theron ( 57.35%)
Actor in a Supporting Role Mystic River Tim Robbins ( 43.24%)
Actress in a Supporting Role Cold Mountain Renee Zellweger ( 59.69%)
Art Direction Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King  ( 48.64%)
Cinematography Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World  ( 58.63%)
Costume Design Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King  ( 74.64%)
Film Editing Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King  ( 51.04%)
Foreign Language Film Barbarian Invasions, The  ( 72.69%)
Makeup Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King  ( 55.24%)
Music (Score) Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King  ( 47.04%)
Music (Song) Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King Into the West ( 83.59%)
Sound Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King  ( 66.58%)
Sound Editing Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World  ( 68.96%)
Visual Effects Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King  ( 69.55%)
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King  ( 47.75%)
Writing (Original Screenplay) Lost in Translation  ( 47.04%)
Documentary Feature Weather Underground  ( 31.23%)
Documentary - Short Subject Chernobyl Heart ( 66.98%)
Short Film - Animated Gone Nutty ( 51.06%)
Short Film - Live Action Squash ( 45.73%)

Complete vote counts in each category.

Bruce Nash

Filed under: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Finding Nemo, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, Cold Mountain, Mystic River, Lost in Translation, Monster, Les invasions barbares, Weather Underground