February 5th, 2013
Given how bad the new releases were, it's no surprise none of them reached the top of the Blu-ray sales chart. (While Looper was awarded the Pick of the Week, it actually came out on the following Monday, while the sales week ends on Sunday, so the numbers will be included in next week's results.) The Dark Knight Rises returned to first place with 314,000 units / $7.65 million for the week giving it totals of 3.90 million units / $79.93 million. It is one of the best selling Blu-rays of all time and about 50% more than The Dark Knight's current running tally.
January 20th, 2013
Batman was even more dominant on the Blu-ray sales chart than it was on the DVD sales chart with two new releases earning the top two spots. The Dark Knight Rises earned first place with 2.26 million units / $42.13 million giving it an opening week Blu-ray share of 53%. Meanwhile, the Trilogy Box Set earned second place with 453,000 units / $12.68 million for an opening week Blu-ray share of 58%. The combined totals are not quite as good as The Avengers' debut was, but was still a fantastic start.
December 4th, 2012
It is an awesome week for new releases on the home market. Not only is one of the biggest hits of all time coming out, but there are a number of other releases that are Pick of the Week contenders. The Dark Knight Rises, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Finding Nemo, Star Trek: The Next Generation: Season Two, My Little Pony Friendship Is Magic: Season One, Brazil, Francis Ford Coppola: 5-Film Collection - Blu-ray, and others. In the end, I went with Finding Nemo: 3D Combo Pack, but it really is an excellent week for prime releases.
December 3rd, 2012
Finding Nemo came out nearly a decade ago and earned nearly perfect reviews. This fall, it became the latest Pixar film to earn a 3D re-release. Is it as good as most critics said it was? And does the 3D add anything to the film?
November 23rd, 2012
This weekend is Thanksgiving and as always that means Black Friday and Cyber Monday plus 48 hours of shopping in-between. Unlike most years, I'm only halfway done with my Christmas shopping. So what recent, and not so recent releases are prime candidates for the perfect gift this year? Over the next month, we will go over several dozen possibilities with our annual Holiday Gift Guide, which is divided into into four sections. This week we start with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. However, before we get into the individual titles, we will start with an update on...
September 24th, 2012
It was another terrible week at the box office with only one of the four wide releases matching pre-weekend predictions. End of Watch was able to come out on top and it was only the second time an Open Road release was able to do that. The rest of the films ranged from a little disappointing to, 'Please don't make me talk about this; it's depressing.' The overall box office rose by 5.1% from last week to $90, but that's a staggering 23% lower than the same weekend last year. Yes, year-to-date, 2012 is still ahead of 2011, but its lead continues to shrink reaching just 2.5% at $7.92 billion to $7.73 billion. Ticket sales are just 1.3% higher than last year's pace and the upcoming releases don't seem particularly strong, so by the end of October, we could officially be in trouble.
September 20th, 2012
This weekend there are four wide releases, which is too many. The odds are at least one, more likely two films will miss reaching their full potential. That's under normal circumstances. The box office is clearly sub-normal at the moment. The widest release of the week is Trouble with the Curve, but its Tomatometer Score has fallen from close to 90% to barely more than 60%. At this pace, by the time the weekend starts, it will be below the overall positive level. House at the End of the Street has good buzz, but still no reviews, and that is troubling. Dredd's reviews are shockingly good, but the film has had trouble escaping the remake stink. Finally, End of Watch is also earning great reviews, but its studio has a really bad track record at the box office. By comparison, last year there were four wide releases, none of which earned more than $20 million; however, three of them did earn more than $10 million and the fourth came close, while The Lion King won the weekend with more than $20 million. I think it will be another loss for 2012 in the year-over-year comparison. It likely won't be close.
September 19th, 2012
The winners of our Back to School contest were determined and they are...
September 17th, 2012
2012 started off so well that I keep thinking the box office will return to those glory days, or at the very least it will stop sucking. That didn't happen this weekend. Granted, the box office grew 28% from last weekend to $86 million. However, this is 15% lower than the same weekend last year and it is still one of the worst weekends of all time. Year-to-date, 2012 still leads 2011, but that lead has shrunk to just 3.0% at $7.80 billion to $7.58 billion. If things don't turn around very soon, 2012 will lose its lead in terms of tickets sold (currently just 1.8%) and its overall lead shortly after that. Since fewer people are watching movies in theaters, it means fewer people are seeing trailers, posters, etc. for upcoming films. Fewer people seeing trailers for upcoming films does often times result in fewer people seeing these upcoming movies. We need a true blockbuster to break out of this cycle.
September 16th, 2012
Resident Evil: Retribution will post a solid opening weekend to top this weekend's box office, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning. With $21.1 million projected by Sony, it will be the fourth consecutive film in the franchise to open between $20 million and $27 million -- an impressive level of consistency. In second place, Finding Nemo 3D is expected to post about $17.5 million, which is a significant disappointment compared to the $30 million debut enjoyed by The Lion King this weekend last year. But the real plaudits this weekend will go to a film playing in just five theaters.
September 13th, 2012
Last weekend was a disaster. It was a disaster the likes we haven't seen in more than a decade, much, much longer if you take into account inflation. This weekend should be a lot stronger, as we have two significant wide releases, Finding Nemo and Resident Evil: Retribution, as well as a semi-wide release, Last Ounce of Courage. Both of the wide releases should top $20 million over the weekend, while there's a chance they could both top $30 million. Last year there were four wide releases that managed a combined $50 million or so. This year, the two wide releases could top that, but it will be close if they do. However, the holdovers are so much weaker than the top two wide releases that 2012 will end up losing again.
September 7th, 2012
With kids back to school, it seems like good time to hand out some Blu-rays dealing with a school you don't want to go to. (I'm not sure what would be worse, an alien invasion or a relationship drama that results in several deaths.) As far as the target film goes, there are two real choices: Resident Evil: Retribution and Finding Nemo 3D. Nemo will most certainly be the bigger hit overall, but Retribution could win the weekend. I think Finding Nemo is the safer choice for the weekend and it is the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Finding Nemo 3D.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of The Faculty on Blu-ray.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of O (Othello) on Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
September 1st, 2012
August is over and let's just be glad we never have to talk about that month again. It is too early to tell how a couple of the wide releases from the month will do, but of the other fourteen we have solid numbers for, none of them were a pleasant surprise. There were a few that were mildly disappointing, but likely still profitable. There were also a few that were "What were they thinking?" level of box office bomb. This September, there about a dozen films opening wide, depending on your definition of wide. (Plus, For A Good Time, Call might expand wide on the 14th, while The Master is opening in limited release on the 14th, but might expand wide before the end of the month. "Might" is the key here. I don't think either will get it done.) None of the dozen films are likely to get to $100 million. In fact, there's a good chance no film opening this month will get to $75 million in total. The biggest film of the month could be Finding Nemo, which is getting a 3D Re-release. As long as the movie going public hasn't tired of 3D re-releases, it should be a hit, but there are signs that the trend might be ending soon. There are a few others that should become midlevel hits, but most will struggle to find an audience. Last September was not terrible with one $100 million film and a few other midlevel hits. For 2012 to come out ahead, it will have to rely on depth, and I'm more than a little worried in that regard.
June 29th, 2004
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
finished first for the fourth weekend in a row with an amazing $40.9 million. That's represents a tiny decrease from last weekend
. A large chuck of that figure came from Japan where the film earned $17.5 million on 782 screens. Also helping was Germany, Italy, U.K. and France being eliminated from Euro 2004. Those four nations represent 260 million people whom were closely following the soccer tournament in Portugal, which hurt the overall box office numbers. Internationally the film has now earned $321 million, putting it in second place for the year and just behind E.T.
for 25th all time. Worldwide its $533 million is also second for the year but 28th all time.
June 22nd, 2004
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
still leads the pack internationally despite increased competition from fellow family friendly film Shrek 2
and from Euro 2004 coverage. With an additional $44.9 million from over 10,000 screens in 48 territories, including number one openings in 7 mostly minor markets. The lone exception was Spain, which added $6.1 million to Harry Potter's coffers, and that number would have been higher had it not been for Sunday's Spain Portugal soccer match. Internationally, the film has earned almost $270 million so far and is still tracking ahead of the other films in the Harry Potter Franchise
, but with greater week-to-week drop-offs it is unlikely to finish quite as high. Worldwide the film has already pulled in $450 million making it the second highest grossing film of the year.
June 14th, 2004
The weekend box office was filed with bad movies and that makes predicting that much more difficult. However, while there were a few surprises, it wasn't as chaotic as it could have been. But with the three new movie combined opening barely above the drop Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
suffered. And that lead to a serious drop from last weekend of 15.75%. But last year at this time, the trio of films that opened really bombed leading to a spectacular 29% increase at the box office. That's several weeks in a row of year to year increases.
June 11th, 2004
While three films open wide this weekend, none seem likely to finish first. In fact, I wouldn't be too surprised if at least one of them misses the top 5. However, if any one new movie doubles my predictions I wouldn't be too surprised. Nor would I be all that shocked if any one movie failed to reach half of what I predicted. It's just that kind of week.
May 19th, 2004
All of Hollywood is desperate for a big hit. Admissions are down nearly 3% from this time last year and we've yet to have a breakout hit in May. Hoping to change that is Shrek 2
, which opens tonight in a near record 3737 theatres.
March 8th, 2004
With its 11 Oscar wins and huge jump in theatre count, Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
should have had the largest post-Oscar jump at the box office. And while in raw dollars it did, it was the lesser known The Barbarian Invasions
that had the biggest percent jump. The Canadian film and winner of Best Foreign Language Film jumped more than 137% at the box office. Its per theatre average also jumped by nearly 40%, compared to the nearly 20% drop by Return of the King.
March 1st, 2004
Perhaps the most surprising aspect of last nights Oscars was the lack of surprises. Even the sweep by Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
wasn't that big of a shock.
February 29th, 2004
Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
swept all the categories it was nominated for in winning a record-equaling 11 Oscars earlier this evening. Here is a list of the winners with reactions to be posted tomorrow.
February 29th, 2004
The final results are in from our Predict the Academy Awards Competition, and Numbers readers are forecasting a Lord of the Rings sweep at the ceremony tonight.
A stunning 90% of voters are calling for Lord of the Rings to win Best Picture and Peter Jackson to win Best Director - some of the strongest predictions we've seen in the 7 years we've been running the poll.
The movie is also projected to win in every other category in which its nominated.
With no Rings stars nominated for acting awards though, some of the other results are still ripe for speculation.
February 23rd, 2004
As Oscar night draws near, we analyze the current voting in our Predict the Oscars competition, and, like CNN on election night, start calling results that we think are looking like racing certainties.
We'll be announcing a new projected winner each day leading up to the competition, and giving our final projected results on the afternoon of February 29 - just before the show itself.
Today we start with an easy one... Best Animated Feature
January 30th, 2004
It's been a while since the prospects for catching a good movie at the theatres was this bad. And it's not like there's lack of wide releases this week. There are three of them. Three wide releases with combined reviews of only 17% positive. In fact, the box office race for top spot should prove more interesting that any of the movies trying to get there.
January 30th, 2004
Steve Jobs, CEO of Pixar and Founder of Apple Computers, announced today that Pixar Studios would no longer negotiate with Disney for distribution rights for their feature films. After ten months of trying to strike a new deal, the two sides were still too far apart for mutually acceptable terms to be found. And while Disney did lead all studios with $1.5 billion in box office receipts for 2003, it's hard not to wonder if their strong-armed negotiating techniques will hurt them in the future. They can hardly lose the $2.5 billion the first Pixar films earned worldwide, adding Finding Nemo's box office would have taken any studio in the top five to first place.
January 27th, 2004
The weekend take for The Last Samurai
dropped less than expected, just 23% or $31.3 million, and that helped it maintain first place for the second weekend in a row. It also crossed $200 million internationally and $300 million worldwide. A mid-February opening in Russia is the last major opening for The Last Samurai, but strong legs in many markets could pull in another $100 million internationally.
January 27th, 2004
Nominations for the 76the Annual Academy Awards were announced today. As always, here is a list of the nominations, plus reactions below.
January 26th, 2004
There seems to be a pattern developing for 2004. The number one movie surprises, but the overall box office is lower than expected. This week was no different. The total box office was down from last weekend's 3-day total, which is not surprising as last weekend was a long weekend. But it dropped by a massive 24.7%. The performance compared to last year that is more troubling. Before the weekend 2004 was 7% behind 2003 and at first glance this weekend was almost flat compared to last year, down less than $200,000 or just 0.002%. But this weekend last year was Superbowl weekend, so the performance is really more equivalent to a 10% drop.
January 25th, 2004
With the awards ceremony only hours away, here's one last look at the theatrical nominations for tonight's 61st annual Golden Globes awards.
January 21st, 2004
The second round of openings for The Last Samurai
in as many weeks helped push it to top spot on the international charts. It more than doubled the number of markets it's playing in while adding almost 70% more screens, but only managed to increase its box office by roughly 25%. The weekend figure of $40.6 million pushed its international total to $157.6 million and its worldwide total to over $250 million. But without many major openings left, its weekly numbers may have peaked.
January 13th, 2004
For the first time since it was released, Lord of the Rings: Return of the King had some stiff competition for top spot on the charts. It did still take first place for the fourth weekend in a row with $35.3 million in 51 markets. Including wins in head-to-head competition with second place The Last Samurai. For instance, Return of the King's fourth weekend easily won in the U.K. $6.7 million to Samurai's $4.9 million. It was a closer contest in Germany, but King remained number one $5.5 million to $4.9 million. But with only a couple of mid-level openings this week in Indonesia and the Czech Republic it could drop out of first place next weekend. Its international total $455 million, second for the year surpassing The Matrix Reloaded by less than $1 million and putting it in a virtual tie with The Lion King for 10th all-time. Worldwide it hit $767, which is also second for the year but 13th all-time.
January 6th, 2004
As it has since it was first released, Lord of the Rings: Return of the King had a commanding win at the international box office. This weekend's numbers were $58.7 million from 8,826 screens in 45 territories, more than double Finding Nemo in second place. Highlights include $2.3 million opening in Poland and just shy of $1 million opening in Argentina, as well as $13.7 million in the U.K. and $10 million in Germany. Totals for Return of the King now sit at $390.4 million outside the US (3rd for the year, 13th all-time) and $680.8 million worldwide (3rd for the year, and 15th all-time). By next week it should be the highest grossing film for the year.
December 30th, 2003
In just a dozen days of release, Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
has already accumulated nearly half a billion dollars. And it is still going strong. This week it commanded $84 million from 38 markets, including $12.5 million from both the U.K. and Germany. It already has more than half the total box office of both its predecessors
, and it has yet to open in major markets like Japan and Italy. Internationally, Return of the King has pulled in $268 million, just behind fourth place The Matrix Revolutions
for the year and 33rd all time. Worldwide, it has $490 million and that's good enough for fourth for the year and 32nd place all-time. By next week, it will be in the top 20 in both.
December 23rd, 2003
As expected, Lord of the Rings: Return of the King dominated the international markets this week, setting many records along the way. It played in 28 countries on 7,403 screens earning $125.9 million, which is a record for international weekend. The film also broke individual market records for Wednesday openings in 15 countries, out of 17 Wednesday openings. It also broke weekend records in more than half a dozen other countries, including major markets like the U.K. and Germany. Worldwide totals for Return of the King are already at $250 million, (another record) putting it in 168th place on the all-time chart in just 5 days. Even with this success, it is unlike to unseat Titanic as the number one movie of all time, but it should become only the second film to earn $1 billion worldwide.
December 16th, 2003
It's after midnight eastern time and the doors have opened to packed houses for the opening of Lord of the Ring: Return of the King.
If there's ever been a guaranteed box office hit, this is it.
December 16th, 2003
For the fifth straight week Finding Nemo was number one at the international box office. And while the film is starting to show signs of slowing down, its weekly performance is still amazing. A total international take of $31.5 million on 5,200 screens made it the clear winner. Plus it was number one in 20 of 27 markets it played in and surpassed $300 million internationally. Current totals for the Pixar smash hit are $330.2 million internationally, (good for 20th place) and $669.9 million worldwide, (for 15th place.) The Lion King is the only animated movie to make more. With only a couple more markets to open in, Finding Nemo must rely on long legs to take top spot away from The Lion King.
December 11th, 2003
After surprising analysts at the box office this summer, Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl has broken records at the home market. The Disney DVD sold 4 million combined VHS and DVD copies in just the first 24 hours, and went on to sell 11 million copies in its first week. That last figure is a record for most units sold in the first week for a live-action feature.
December 10th, 2003
Finding Nemo not only won the weekend in convincing fashion, it also became Pixar's biggest international hit internationally, overtaking Monsters Inc.. The film's performance this week was even more impressive than last week. Number one in 20 markets helped it to another $45.9 million, bringing its total to $283.4 million internationally. That's 28th overall and 3rd for animated movies. However, it is only a few million behind Aladdin for second and will surpass that film mid-week (most likely, it has already done so.) Worldwide, Finding Nemo is even more impressive with $623.1 million, 18th overall.
December 2nd, 2003
Finding Nemo's continued domination of the European market, (it was number one in 15 markets) helped it earn the number one position this week. It is also unseating Tarzan and The Lion King as biggest animated movie in almost every market and should become the biggest animated movie worldwide before its run is over. This week it added another $37 million to push its international total to $230.8 million, which is 54th overall, (just ahead of The Matrix Revolutions.) Its worldwide total is now an amazing $570.5 million, 21st overall.
November 25th, 2003
November 18th, 2003
November 18th, 2003
November 12th, 2003
November 5th, 2003
November 4th, 2003