Weekend Predictions: Cinderella (Ella Ella)
March 12, 2015
Last weekend was a disaster, the worst weekend at the box office so far this year. This weekend should bounce back with the opening of Cinderella. Its the first family film to come out since The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water and its reviews are excellent. The other film opening wide this week is Run All Night, which is the latest Liam Neeson action film. There's not much more that needs to be said about that. This weekend last year was led by Mr. Peabody and Sherman with $21.81 million. Cinderella will crush that figure. In fact, Cinderella might make more than the top five made combined last year.
There have been a lot of live action movies made recently that are based on earlier Disney animated films. Not all have earned high praise, but there have been a large number of hits. Cinderella is the latest. Its reviews are among the best of any wide release to come out this year. Additionally, it has been weeks since there has been a family film that has come out, so there's built up demand. Box office expectations for the film's opening weekend range from the low $60 million range to close to $80 million. The high end wouldn't be unprecedented for this time of year, as Oz the Great and Powerful opened with $79.11 million back in 2013. However, I'm going to be a little more conservative and go with $71 million.
Run All Night is the latest Liam Neeson action film, which almost feels like it should be an official genre of its own. It is the second such film to come out this year. Taken 3 opened in January with $39.10 million during its opening weekend and will finish with $90 million, more or less. This film's reviews are better, but still mixed. I think most critics are just tired of the formula. Are moviegoers tired of the formula as well? That's the question we have to ask in order to predict its opening weekend box office. If the answer is no, the film will still have to deal with a lot of competition, so $20 million is the high end. On the low end, it might struggle to get to $10 million. I'm going with $14 million.
The next four films will all earn $6 million, more or less. Chappie should grab third place with just over $6 million for a total of $24 million after two weeks of release. Clearly the studio was hoping for more since they spent $49 million making it.
The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel should be close behind with $6 million during its sophomore stint. On the other hand, the film reportedly only cost $10 million to make and it is performing better internationally, so it will break even sooner rather than later.
Focus should round out the top five with just under $6 million. The film is on pace to top $50 million, but it will need to double that internationally to break even anytime soon.
Kingsman: The Secret Service will be knocked out of the top five with between $5 million and $6 million over the weekend. However, it did reach $100 million on Wednesday, becoming just the third film released in 2015 to get to that milestone.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, Kingsman: The Secret Service, Cinderella, Chappie, Run All Night, Focus, Taken 3, The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Liam Neeson