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Weekend Predictions: Inside Out and Upside Down

June 19th, 2015

Inside Out

For the past few months, 2015 had been struggling to keep pace with 2014. Worse still, 2014 wasn't a great year at the box office either. However, that changed with the record-breaking release of Jurassic World. Even if the film falls 60% this weekend, it will still lead the way over Inside Out. For the first time in their history, a Pixar film is expected to open in second place, but they have a good shot of continuing their record of having an opening weekend between $62.58 million and $70.47 million (which has been true of all but three of their films since 2001). That's incredible reliability. Dope is the other wide release, but it is barely opening truly wide and the worst case scenario has it failing to reach the top five. This weekend last year, there were five films that earned $10 million or more. This year, there might be just two. However, last year, Think Like a Man Too was the top film with under $30 million. Jurassic World might earn three times than and Inside Out should at least double that. 2015 should be carried on Jurassic World's wave and easily come out on top of the year-over-year competition.

Jurassic World broke records last weekend and unless it has an epic crash, it will remain in top spot this weekend. A complete collapse isn't out of the question, as huge hits do have a long way to fall. Sequels also tend to have shorter legs than average and the reviews were good, but not great. A 60% drop-off is a coin-flip, but I think it will avoid that fate. Look for a sophomore stint of $85 million and a running tally of about $380 million. This would put it in second place for the year after just ten days of release.

Inside Out is the latest film from Pixar and the second film directed by Pete Docter. His previous film was Up, a film that earn 98% positive reviews. There's no way this film will earn better reviews, right? Right? At the moment, Inside Out's Tomatometer Score is 99% positive... (And the Oscar goes to...) As for the film's box office potential, most analysts think it will top the $60 million to $70 million pattern that Pixar has established over the past 15 years or so. There's a chance it will be a breakout hit with $80 million or more. That's a little too bullish for my tastes, but $72 million should be a solid goal to aim for. Additionally, because the film is an original movie and not a sequel / remake, and has a family-oriented target audience, and has stellar reviews, it has an excellent chance for long legs.

Spy will most likely land in third place with just over $9 million. The reviews are among the best of any wide release for the year and neither of the two new wide releases represent direct competition, so that's a good sign. After adding nearly $10 million over the weekend, the film will be at about $73 million and on pace for a final box office of $95 million. That's close enough to the century mark that the studio might give it a push to get over that milestone.

Dope is opening in just over 2,000 theaters meaning it is barely opening truly wide. On the positive side, its reviews are excellent and it has had a lot of buzz since its debut at Sundance. On the other hand, its low theater count suggests the studio isn't overly optimistic about the film's chances at the box office. It could grab third place with just over $10 million, but fourth place with $9 million is more likely.

San Andreas should round out the top five with between $5 million and $6 million. That will push the running tally to close to $130 million domestically. Add in its international numbers and it likely already broke even.


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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Jurassic World, Inside Out, Spy!, San Andreas, Dope, Pete Docter