Weekend Predictions: Getting Bossy
April 7, 2016
There's some good news and some bad news with regards to the two new releases coming out this week. On the positive side, the competition is a lot weaker than it should be. On the negative side, so are the reviews. The Boss's reviews are weaker than Tammy's are. Additionally, Hardcore Henry's reviews went from more than 80% positive to less than 50% positive and it looks like it will continue to drop. It is playing in a lot more theaters than anticipated, so that's good news. This weekend last year, Furious 7 led the way with nearly $60 million. That's not much less than the top five will earn this weekend. 2016 will lose in the year-over-year comparison.
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice will remain in first place, but only by default. After a 69% fall last weekend, it will bounce back a little this weekend, but only because it can't get worse. It will still fall more than 50% to just $24 million. That won't be enough to put its running tally over $300 million, but it should be enough to put it ahead of Zootopia's running tally. On the other hand, it has been falling behind Deadpool's pace by about $1 million a day. BvS still has a sizable lead, but that lead won't last at this rate.
The Boss is the latest from Melissa McCarthy and Ben Falcone, who previously made Tammy. That movie earned bad reviews, but became a solid midlevel hit. This movie is earning worse reviews, but will likely also become a midlevel hit. Tammy had a better release date, but The Boss has weaker competition. Also, Tammy opened on a Wednesday. I think these factors will all balance out and The Boss will have an opening weekend nearly identical to Tammy's three-day weekend. So look for an opening weekend of between $21 million and $22 million.
Zootopia is showing amazing legs and will very likely continue to do so this weekend. Look for $15 million over the weekend, lifting its total to $296 million. Getting to $300 million domestically is now a formality.
Hardcore Henry started with a lot of advance buzz and the earlier reviews were more than 80% positive. However, now that more mainstream critics have reviewed the film, its Tomatometer Score has fallen below 50% positive. This isn't bad for an action film, but it isn't a genre redefining number either. The film is opening in just over 3,000 theaters, which is more than it was expected to open in, so it should still do relatively well at the box office. Look for an opening weekend of $12 million, which is more than it cost STX for the distribution rights, so this is a good start.
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 should round out the top five with $8 million. Its running tally is closing in on $50 million and will get there very shortly.
- Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice comparisons
- The Boss comparisons
- Hardcore Henry comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Deadpool, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, Zootopia, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, The Boss, Hardcore Henry, Ben Falcone, Melissa McCarthy