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Friday Estimates: New Releases are as Quiet as a Purr

April 30th, 2016

Keanu

The Jungle Book easily remained in first place on Friday’s box office chart, earning $10.25 million. That is down just 38% from last Friday and if the weekend as the same internal multiplier as last time, then we are looking at a $49 million weekend haul. That’s a lot more than we predicted and would push the film’s running tally well over $250 million. However, this seems overly bullish—I would expect a weekend total of a few million less.

Keanu opened in second place with just $3.46 million. This is lower than expected and weaker than its reviews would lead one to expect. However, I read something yesterday that explains this result. Warner Bros. decided to concentrate their advertising dollars online, because Jordan Peele and Keegan-Michael Key have so many social media followers. Apparently whoever made this decision lives in an alternate dimension where Snakes on a Plane was a huge hit. Anyone living in this dimension should know that internet buzz rarely translates into real world ticket sales. The film should still earn just over $9 million over the weekend, which could be enough for second place.

Mother’s Day earned third place on Friday with $2.79 million. I think of this film as part of Garry Marshall’s Holiday Franchise. The reviews are awful, but the film is targeting more mature women, so it likely will have a better internal multiplier as a result. This will give it just under $8 million over the weekend.

The Huntsman: Winter’s War only managed fourth place on Friday with $2.65 million. However, because it isn’t a new release, it should bounce back and take third place with just under $9 million. Again, it’s going to need a lot of help internationally to break even.

Ratchet and Clank missed the top five with $1.49 million on Friday. It’s going to miss the Mendoza Line with just over $5 million over the weekend, but this is a little better than expected.

- Friday box office chart

- Keanu comparisons
- Mother's Day comparisons
- Ratchet and Clank comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Garry Marshall's Holiday Franchise, Garry Marshall, Jordan Peele, Keegan-Michael Key