Weekend Prediction: Smallfoot Looking for Big Box Office

September 26, 2018

Night School

The final weekend of September is home to three wide releases. Two of these, Night School and Smallfoot could be solid hits. And since they are aimed at vastly different audiences, they shouldn’t cannibalize each other at the box office. On the other hand, Hell Fest is a low-budget horror movie that should earn more during its opening weekend than its $5.5 million production budget. Meanwhile, last week’s number one film, The House with a Clock in its Walls, should still have a solid weekend haul, giving the box office reasonable depth. This weekend last year, no film earned more than $20 million, while this year we should have two above that mark. Last year did have better depth, but I think 2018 will end its mini-losing streak in the year-over-year comparison.

Night School’s Kevin Hart and Tiffany Haddish are both comedic geniuses. However, the critics have not been kind to this movie, as the script doesn’t give the actors enough prime material. That said, the star power is good and there is no direct competition, so it has a shot at $30 million. It’s a slim shot and $27 million is more likely. This would be a great start for a film that reportedly cost just under $29 million to make.

Smallfoot, on the other hand, cost $80 million to make, which is still below average for a digitally animated movie, but might be too much to recoup for the film, as Warner Animation Group does not have a good track record outside of the first two Lego Movies. Its reviews are good, but not great, however there hasn’t been an animated film released since Teen Titans Go! To the Movies, so there should be some pent up demand. It appears to be on track for an opening of between $20 million and $25 million. I think it will open with $24 million, putting it in second place, but I think it will have much better legs than Night School will have and eventually overtake it at the domestic box office.

The House with a Clock in its Walls opened faster than expected and since it is a family film, it should have good legs. That said, Smallfoot is going after roughly the same demographic, so it will cost it more than a few ticket sales. Additionally, it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore, which is weak for a family film. Look for $14 million over the weekend, for a two-week total of $46 million, which is already more than it cost to make.

A Simple Favor will spend another week in the top five, this time earning about $7 million. It will cross $40 million domestically, meaning the studio’s share of the box office will be more than the $20 million it cost to make. It is almost guaranteed to break even early in its home market run.

Hell Fest is a low budget horror film with a $5.5 million production. I was more bullish about its chances earlier in the month, but its buzz just hasn’t grown. It also still has no reviews, but I’m not expecting much. If it has a Tomatometer Score of better than 40% positive, I will be impressed. It should earn enough to land in fifth place with about $6 million, but maybe it will surprise and grab fourth place with $8 million or more.

- Night School Comparisons
- Smallfoot Comparisons
 - Hell Fest Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Smallfoot, Night School, Teen Titans Go! To The Movies, Hell Fest, The House with a Clock in its Walls, A Simple Favor, Lego, Kevin Hart, Tiffany Haddish