Weekend Predictions: Will First Man Live Up to Its Name?
October 11, 2018
There are three wide releases coming out this week. First Man is the biggest release and has the best reviews with 90% positive reviews. Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween’s reviews are much, much worse, but it should still do relatively well at the box office. It is a horror movie for kids opening just before Halloween. The final wide release of the week is Bad Times at the El Royale, which is earning really good reviews, but the buzz is rather quiet. These films will have to compete with Venom and A Star is Born, both of which are expected to do big business during their second weekend of release. This weekend last year, Happy Death Day opened with $26.04 million; however, it was the only film that earned more than $20 million over the weekend. This year, we could have as many as four films earn more than $20 million.
Venom opened with $80.26 million last weekend, which is great news for Sony, as they haven't had a great few years. On the downside, its reviews are only 30% positive and it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore. Given this, a drop-off worse than 60% is almost guaranteed, which would leave the film with no more than $32 million over the weekend. On the low end, it could fall nearly as much as Batman v Superman did, given it a low end figure of about $25 million. I think the high end is more likely, but I still think it will fail to get to $30 million over the weekend. It should be close, on the other hand.
First Man is widely expected to earn between $20 million and $22 million over the weekend. However, last weekend, A Star is Born was expected to earn $35 million and it crushed those numbers. I think this film will do the same. They are both aimed at more mature target demographics, while both films are earning award-worthy reviews. Film Man will skew male at the box office, while A Star is Born was predominantly watched by women. I think the film will earn just over $27 million this weekend, but it could also compete for first place with just under $30 million.
Speaking of A Star is Born, it should be right behind with $27 million. Again, its reviews are award-worthy and it earned an A from CinemaScore. Additionally, its target audience is more mature women, which is the group most likely to watch a movie after its opening weekend.
Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween is not going to live up to the original. It’s not even going to open faster before falling quicker. Part of the problem is the reviews, which are only 33% positive. But another problem is the competition, as both Smallfoot and The House with a Clock in its Walls are going after the same target audience. That said, it could top $20 million this weekend. I’m not that bullish, but it should be close with $18 million. This is still enough to be a financial success, especially given its more modest budget of $35 million.
Bad Times at the El Royale is the smallest of the three wide releases and despite earning great reviews, I don’t think it will top $10 million over the weekend, but it should come close. Look for just under $9 million over the weekend. However, if it opens closer to $8 million, then Smallfoot might keep it out of the top five.
- First Man Comparisons
- Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween Comparisons
- Bad Times at the El Royale Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Venom, Smallfoot, A Star is Born, Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, First Man, Bad Times at the El Royale, The House with a Clock in its Walls