Weekend Prediction: Queen Biopic Looks to Start the Holiday Season Rocking

November 1, 2018

Bohemian Rhapsody

November is the start of the holiday blockbuster season and practically every week from now until after Christmas is an excellent weekend to release a film. (The weekend after Thanksgiving is the only real exception.) This year, things don’t get off to a tremendously fast start, as there are no monster hits. That said, Bohemian Rhapsody could be a $100 million hit domestically. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms has to deal with terrible reviews and a lot of direct competition from bigger family films coming out this month. Finally, Nobody’s Fool is the first Tyler Perry movie not released by Lionsgate. It is not being heavily advertised as a Tyler Perry movie either. This weekend last year, Thor: Ragnarok opened with $122 million. No film opening this year will match that. All three films combined won’t match that. 2018's winning streak will end.

Bohemian Rhapsody is a biopic of Queen, which is one of the greatest bands ever. Unfortunately, its reviews are just below the overall positive level and that’s not going to help its box office numbers. There have been reports that the film’s advanced ticket sales are better than those of A Star is Born, but it is aimed a men more than women, so this is to be expected. Bohemian Rhapsody could earn more during its previews and still end up significantly below A Star is Born over their respective full opening weekends. It should still be a box office hit with about $36 million over the next three days. This might be enough to get to $100 million domestically, depending on how well it holds on and if it can get a boost from Thanksgiving.

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms has to deal with terrible reviews and it will likely be Disney’s lowest performing box office hit at the domestic box office for the entire year. It has a shot at earning $25 million over the weekend, but $22 million is more likely. Assuming relatively good legs, for a family film released at this time of year, it could become a midlevel hit. Sadly, extensive reshoots caused the production budget to balloon to close to $133 million, so there’s almost no chance it will break even at the box office.

Halloween should be in third place with just over $15 million over the weekend, pushing it past $150 million domestically.

Nobody’s Fool is the latest Tyler Perry movie and like so many films from the writer / director, this one has no reviews ahead of its release. Even so, the film should be in a relatively close race for third place with just under $15 million.

A Star is Born should round out the top five with $9 million. The film has very likely already broken even just on its domestic numbers, so anything it earns from now on is pure gravy.

- Bohemian Rhapsody Comparisons
- The Nutcracker and the Four Realms Comparisons
- Nobody’s Fool Comparison

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Halloween, A Star is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, Nobody’s Fool, Tyler Perry