Weekend Predictions: Will Joker Have the Last Laugh?

October 4, 2019

Joker

Joker is the only wide release of the week and this should help it thrive at the box office. In fact, there are many who think it will top Venom’s October record. Venom set that record this weekend last year, so if it breaks the record that’s good news for 2019 in the year-over-year comparison, right? It’s not that simple, as A Star is Born also debut this weekend last year and that depth will likely prove too much for 2019 to overcome.

Joker debuted at the Venice International Film Festival earlier this year and earned an amazing critical reception with some suggesting it would be the first comic book movie to earn the best picture winner. That’s not going to happen. In fact, if its reviews get just a little bit weaker, it will lose its certified fresh rating. That said, while its reviews are merely good, its presales are outstanding for this time of year with some suggesting the film could top $100 million during its opening weekend. I think that’s too bullish, but it should break Venom’s October record with relative ease. I’m going with an opening weekend of $86 million.

Since there are no other new releases to talk about, the rest of this column will be relatively short. Abominable will have a similar drop-off as Smallfoot did during its second weekend of release. If I’m correct, then Abominable will earn about $13 million over the weekend.

Downton Abbey will be next with just under $8 million, which may or may not be enough to reach $100 million domestically. It could still get to that milestone, but it will likely need a push from Focus Features to get there.

On the other hand, Hustlers will hit the century mark with ease, especially with another $7 million earned this weekend.

It: Chapter Two will round out the top five with $6 million allowing the film to hit $200 million domestically in the process.

Filed under: Weekend Preview