Weekend projections: Argylle holds well through weekend for $18-million debut, The Chosen place a strong second

February 4, 2024

Argylle

Argylle looked like it was heading to a dismal debut when we ran our predictions on Friday. It’s coming in well ahead of what our model was seeing based on $1.7 million in previews on Thursday, although it will end up with a so-so $18 million, according to Universal’s Sunday-morning projection. Meanwhile, The Chosen is exceeding expectations, and will end the weekend in second place.

Here’s how the domestic numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…



There’s not a whole lot great to say about Argylle’s debut, particularly given its reputed $200-million production budget. It’s earning a poor C+ CinemaScore, which suggests it won’t have great legs. What it does have, however, is a slightly older-skewing audience, with 76% of moviegoers over 25, and 51% 35 and older. That’s a similar demographic profile to Nobody, which had decent legs in early 2021, albeit at a time when theaters were recovering from the depths of the pandemic. A poor audience response plus an older demographic will probably add up to average legs overall for the film.

Its international numbers aren’t looking great, with $17.345 million expected this weekend, led by $2.633 million in the United Kingdom, where it will finish second this weekend. It’ll top the chart in Australia (with $1.57 million), France ($1.527 million), Mexico ($1.32 million), Taiwan ($540,000) and the U.A.E. ($519,000).

In a sense, these results are somewhat academic, because Apple footed the production cost, and will get another high-profile movie added to their streaming service down the line. By way of comparison, the company only needs to sell 50,000 or so of their new Vision Pro headsets to put $200 million back in the bank. Getting Argylle the Immersive Experience on to Apple TV+ may be the long-term play here.

The Chosen has much loftier goals, in that it’s a ongoing series about the life and times of Jesus. It’ll land right in line with expectations this weekend, with its $6-million opening basically on par with the $8.8 million earned by Season 4 and Christmas with the Chosen’s $4.2 million. The theatrical releases in the series have had varying release strategies, but our chart comparing their day-by-day performance shows how consistent they've been. This was the widest release ever for Fathom Events, and further confirmation that films with a direct and personal connection to their audience are thriving.

Other returning films were harmed a little by the new competition and dipped about 5% more than predicted. The Beekeeper still stands out, given it had direct competition from Argylle and will still only drop by 21% this weekend. It is within touching distance of $50 million in total now domestically and well past $100 million worldwide. We don’t have an official budget number for the film, but “below $200 million” is a fairly safe statement.

The market overall will tick up a little this weekend, but we’re still looking at very low numbers. Lisa Frankenstein is unlikely to move the needle substantially, particularly with its core demographic unusually interested in watching the Super Bowl this year. Maybe, just maybe, Valentine’s Day, and the release of Bob Marley: One Love and Madame Web will start to turn receipts in a more positive direction. Five weeks into the New Year, the market badly needs a hit.

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Filed under: The Chosen