Weekend Estimates: Turtles Power to $65 Million

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles poster

The Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles didn’t just overcome the bad guys in a movie this weekend. They also overcame almost universally-scathing reviews and an end-of-Summer release date to top the box office. With expectations going into the weekend ranging from the low 30s to $50 million or so, an opening that Paramount is projecting at $65 million as of Sunday morning is a triumph. Even with the prospect of steep declines in the weeks ahead, the film should hit $150 million domestically, and with international markets expected to be the film’s strong suit, a sequel or two are likely to follow. The weekend’s other openers have less rosy futures.

Into the Storm will open with around $18 million, and likely won’t last long—a real problem for a picture with a $50 million price tag. The Hundred-Foot Journey will have better legs, thanks to its older demographic, so an opening of $11 million is an OK start. Reviews, however, are good rather than great, so its long-term prospects are uncertain. Finally, Step Up All In will have by far the weakest opening so far for the franchise, continuing a seemingly inexorable decline in domestic fortunes: the films have had, in order, opening weekends of $20.6 million, $18.9 million, $15.8 million, $11.7 million, and now a projected $6.6 million. These declines have been more than compensated for by steady gains at the international box office, and that’s clearly where hopes will turn for this outing.

In spite of quite direct competition from the Turtles, Guardians of the Galaxy will have one of the best second weekends of the Summer, with a projected $41.5 million taking the film over $175 million after ten days in theaters. Yet again, we are looking at a film that will make between $200 million and $250 million this Summer.

In limited release, Korean historical action movie The Admiral: Roaring Currents will top the theater averages with an impressive $40,000 from a single theater, according to our sources. Time will tell, but it does have the potential to be something of a breakout indie hit.

The other limited engagements were mostly subdued, although What If is making a decent start with $130,000 projected from 20 theaters for CBS Films. With good reviews and positive reactions from audiences, the film could have a good run at the end of the Summer.

- Weekend Estimates

Bruce Nash bruce.nash@the-numbers.com


Date posted: 2014-08-10