Weekend projections: Bad Boys powers to $56-million opening

June 9, 2024

Bad Boys: Ride or Die is powering towards a $56-million opening weekend, according to Sony Pictures’ Sunday-morning estimate. That’s down only slightly from the pre-pandemic $62.5-million opening of Bad Boys for Life, and 26% higher than our model predicted on Friday morning. The Watchers will land in fourth place with an OK $7 million, which will be enough to lift the market as a whole back above the crucial $100-million line. More...

Weekend predictions: Bad Boys riding towards respectable $40-million-plus opening

June 7, 2024

This is looking like a glass-half-full kind of weekend at the box office. Bad Boys: Ride or Die doesn’t look it will match Bad Boys for Life at the box office, but it does look as though it will have the best opening weekend since Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes with something around $45 million. Meanwhile, The Watchers looks as though it will have a respectable debut. More...

Theater counts: Garfield staves off Bad Boys to remain widest release

June 6, 2024

Last weekend was another sluggish one at the domestic box office, with two films in their sophomore weekend vying for bragging rights. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga and The Garfield Movie went head to head, with the latter taking the top prize. Fortunately, we should see a substantial uptick this weekend with the debut of Bad Boys: Ride or Die, as well as the horror feature, The Watchers. More...

Venom: The Last Dance trailer

June 3, 2024

Super Hero Action movie starring Tom Hardy opens in theaters October 25. Full movie details. More...

Weekend projections: family films Garfield and IF take top two spots

June 2, 2024

Family audiences are carrying the theatrical business this weekend, with The Garfield Movie moving into top spot on its second weekend, and IF climbing back to second place in its third outing as Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga slips to third. More...

Weekend predictions: Garfield likely to come top on brutal weekend at the box office (updated)

May 31, 2024

After a record-breaking (for all the wrong reasons) Memorial Day weekend, market conditions are only going to get worse this weekend, with no films opening in over 2,000 theaters. The Garfield Movie looks like the likely winner this weekend, although Furiosa has a shot, and even IF could conceivably top the chart in its third weekend. More...

The May Business Report looks at the studio’s increasing use of existing IP

May 31, 2024

Arguably the biggest change in the movie business during the 21st century has been the increase in reliance on existing intellectual property (IP) by the studios. Back in 2000, the list of the 10 highest-grossing films in North America included five completely original films: Gladiator, Meet the Parents, Scary Movie, What Lies Beneath, and Dinosaur. Two films were stories based on real-life events: The Perfect Storm, and Erin Brockovich. With How the Grinch Stole Christmas a standalone book adaptation, the only two true franchise films in the top 10 that year were Mission: Impossible 2, and X-Men.

In contrast, in 2023, not a single film in the top 10 was completely original, and only Oppenheimer can be confidently described as a non-franchise film (although there’s no word on sequels for Barbie or Sound of Freedom).

The question then becomes what existing IP is available for adaptation? Has Hollywood already found all the easy targets, or is there plenty more material out in the world waiting for its chance to shine on screen?

We try to answer this, and more, in the May edition of the Business Report. Here’s a sneak peek of our findings:

• There are six major films based on video games on the release slate for later this year through 2026, and many more in some stage of development or production.
• With Wicked coming to theaters for Thanksgiving, Hollywood has adapted each of the top 10 shows in Broadway history that’s suitable for a movie version. While there’s some correlation between the length of a show's run in theaters and its box office performance, there have been some, ahem, mis-steps.
• We found some promising projects in development that we had no idea existed until now. Sam Mendes developing four films about The Beatles for Sony is just one of them.

Click here to sign up. More...

Theater counts: Garfield claws its way to widest release on a slow weekend

May 30, 2024

The Memorial Day weekend box office turned out to be a disappointment in what should have been a healthy four-day stretch to kick off the Summer movie season. Topping the domestic charts were two of the three newcomers, with Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga narrowly edging out The Garfield Movie, with $32.34 million to $31.26 million from Friday through Monday. This weekend will undoubtedly see the two reigning leaders remain on top, although there’s a good chance the roles will be reversed. More...

Weekend box office: Furiosa top on slowest Memorial Day weekend in years

May 27, 2024

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga will come out of Memorial Day weekend on top of the box office chart, but its $26.3-million estimated three-day opening is a significant disappointment. That is a smaller debut than The Fall Guy managed at the beginning of May, and that film wasn’t the latest installment in a multi-Oscar winning franchise. While both films got good reviews from critics, Furiosa has the edge in that department too, with critic and audience scores both running at 90% positive on Rotten Tomatoes right now and a B+ CinemaScore. Unfortunately, the weak opening for Furiosa isn’t the last of the bad news this weekend, which, outside of the 2020 pandemic, will be the weakest Memorial Day weekend in years. More...

Weekend predictions: no signs of a breakout hit heading into Memorial Day

May 24, 2024

Three new wide releases, each aimed at a different audience, are taking a crack at drawing moviegoers back into theaters over Memorial Day weekend. Based on audience tracking and their Thursday previews, it doesn’t look as though any of them will have a huge impact on the market, although none look likely to be disasters. That’s been the story of the year so far: most films that have come out have landed at least somewhere in the ballpark of expectations, but not a single one has become the blockbuster we need.

Here’s how Memorial Day, traditionally a launchpad for Summer blockbusters, is shaping up this year. More...

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