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Will Inception Win Again, or is it Time for the Other Guys?

August 5th, 2010

It's August and box office analysts are debating whether or not Summer will continue for another week. If the new releases as big as some expect, then it will continue. On the other hand, both new releases could bomb, leaving Inception in top spot, in which case summer will definitely be over. Even if the more bullish predictions come true, it might be tough for 2010 to maintain pace with last year and the five-week winning streak could be over.

The Other Guys packs a lot of box office drawing power into one movie. For instance, two of the three films Adam McKay previously directed reached $100 million. Of course, all three of those films were with Will Ferrell, who is no stranger to $100 million hits either. Add in Mark Wahlberg, Samuel L. Jackson, and Dwayne Johnson and you have a lot of box office muscle. And it looks like the talent isn't going to waste, as the reviews are very strong, so far. Finally, the competition for this type of comedy is non-existent at this point with the closest analogous film being The A-Team. Then again, that film really struggled at the box office and this one might do the same. It should still wind up on top and perhaps even open with more than $40 million. I'm going with $37 million, which puts it on pace to reach, or at least come close to, $100 million in total.

After reaching $200 million on Tuesday, Inception will finally give up its box office crown on Friday. Even so, it has a chance to earn more than $20 million over the weekend, which would give the film a running tally of roughly $230 million and would keep $300 million a possibility. Falling to just over $18 million over the weekend is a little more realistic, but this is still a fantastic run.

The only other new release of the weekend is Step Up 3D, which should be in a pretty close race for second place. The previous two films in the franchise opened with $20 million, more or less. There was a drop-off at the box office between the first and second film, which could come into play here. However, this film is in 3D and will benefit from the increased ticket price as a result. Also of note are its reviews, which are better than expected. Granted, they are not great, but close to 50% positive is still a selling point for this type of film. Best case sceneario has the film earning $24 million and scoring second place. Worst case has it earning less than half that and struggling to reach the top five. I'm going with third place and just under $18 million, but I hope to be pleasantly surprised.

Dinner for Schmucks, Salt should fight it out for fourth place with the former leading the latter just over $12 million to just under $12 million. Neither is earning significantly better reviews than the other, while both films have had similar midweek numbers. However, Dinner is adding nearly 100 theaters while Salt is losing nearly 300, which I think could be the deciding factor. On the other hand, should either film stumble, Despicable Me could be there to grab fifth place.


Filed under: Inception, Salt, Dinner for Schmucks, The Other Guys, Step Up 3D