Tangled Nearly Ties Potter
November 29, 2010
As expected, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I led the way on the box office chart, but Tangled was stiffer competition than almost anyone thought it would be. Both were able to outperform the New Moon / The Blind Side one-two punch from last year. But the rest of the chart was not as strong, leading to three-day declines of 3% from last weekend and 6% from last year with $183 million. Over five days, the box office pulled in $264 million, which is again 3% lower than last year. 2010's lead over 2009 has been cut to 2% at $9.66 billion to $9.46 billion, which is not enough to assume 2010 will come out on top in the end, but it should be close.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I again broke records for the franchise, becoming the fastest Harry Potter film to reach $200 million, doing so in nine days. This shaves a day off the previous best, which was first accomplished by Goblet of Fire and later matched by Half-Blood Prince. It did this thanks to a $49.09 / $74.99 million weekend, which pushed its running tally to $219.06 million. In comparison, The Prisoner of Azkaban made $249.54 million in total, which means by this time next week, Deathly Hallows: Part I will have overtaken that film's domestic final. Also, even with a sophomore decline that was a little steeper than I would have liked, $300 million domestically is still within reach, although the franchise record probably isn't.
Tangled was a surprise hit, at least to some, as it earned more in three days than many were predicting it would earn over five. It opened with $48.77 million / $68.71 million during its opening weekend. It came within a rounding error of taking top spot over the weekend, and in fact was in first place on the daily chart on Sunday. Its reviews and its relative strength as the weekend continued, suggests its word-of-mouth is a major selling point. By this time next week it should be at $100 million, while $200 million in total is a reasonable goal. That goal depends heavily on how well it survives the post-Thanksgiving collapse, however.
MegaMind outpaced the competition for third place with $12.58 million / $17.30 million, lifting its running tally to $130.22 million. $150 million is currently the final goal, which is a little lower than original expectations, but close enough to its production budget that the studio should be happy.
Burlesque was the only other new release to come relatively close to matching expectations, as it debuted in fourth place with $11.95 million / $17.30 million. This is close to what the film was originally expected to earn in total. It also managed to earn reviews that are on the high end of expectations. That's the good news. The bad news is a lot of people expected this film to be a disaster, while it is only a weak effort. Additionally, the film reportedly cost more than $50 million to make, which is higher than estimated previously. It's not a bomb, but like most midlevel hits, it will have to wait for DVD / Blu-ray sales to break even.
Amazingly, Unstoppable remained in the top five with $11.43 million / $15.89 million. It could stick around next week as well, especially with the weak selection of new releases and a couple films above it that could sink faster than it does. On the other hand, it currently has $60.44 million in total, while it cost almost $100 million to make. It will need strong overseas numbers to break even by its initial push into the home market.
Love and Other Drugs was an also ran, missing the top five with $9.74 million / $13.90 million. With reviews that are no where near the level that were expected, it is unlikely to recover from this opening, and by the time Christmas rolls around, it will be all but gone from theaters.
Faster is the third release from CBS Films and they have yet to find one that can connect with moviegoers. This one only managed seventh place with $8.52 million / $12.00 million, which was a step back from their previous release and the weakest wide release of Dwayne Johnson's career. At least CBS Split the $24 million production budget with Sony (in exchange for some international markets) so it could still break even, eventually.
Looking in on the sophomore class, we find The Next Three Days in ninth place with $4.68 million / $6.44 million for a $14.39 million total after ten days of release. Theaters will be dumping this one shortly, while the studio will likely want to forget about it.
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Tangled, Burlesque, Faster, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I, Unstoppable, Love and Other Drugs, The Next Three Days, Megamind