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The Slump 2: Electric Boogaloo

July 29th, 2005

For almost a week it looked like the 2005 box office was recovering. Then last weekend we saw a massive drop-off at the box office and it doesn't look like this weekend will do much better. This time last year we had a $50 million opener and two more films that cracked $20 million. This year, on the other hand, there is a distinct possibility that no film will earn $20 million at the box office over the weekend. On the other hand, every film in the top five could finish with between $15 million and $20 million, so at least there should be some interesting races at the box office.

I'm going out on a limb and predicting Sky High will take the box office crown this weekend. While the film's production design is reminiscent of last year's Thunderbirds, its reviews are on par with those earned by the first two entries in the Spy Kids franchise. And while I don't think it will match those films' total box office, it should get off to a strong start with $19 million and a first place finish.

The Wedding Crashers and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory should be in a tough battle for second place on the charts. The former should add just over $18 million over the weekend for a running tally of $114 million; some are even comparing the film to There's Something About Mary, which may be going a tad overboard. While Charlie and the Chocolate Factory should finish with just below $18 million and a final box office of $200 million is still the target.

Coming in fourth is the second wide release of the weekend, Stealth. Reviews for the film are even worse than I imagined at just 11% positive. With the weaker than expected reviews and the demise of similarly loud film, The Island, I'm downgrading my expectations for this film to just a $15 million opening.

Our final wide release is Must Love Dogs, which is also earning weaker than expected reviews. This, along with the target demographic, will leave the film in fifth place with $14 million, but it should have strong enough legs to reach $50 million overall, or at least come close.

Lastly, March of the Penguins is expanding, again. Granted, this time it's only by 83 more theatres, but that could be enough to keep the film in the top ten with $4 million, but it will be close.

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Filed under: Wedding Crashers, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, La marche de l'empereur, Sky High, Must Love Dogs, Stealth