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Oscar Prediction: Directing

February 25th, 2004

Every day between now and the Academy Awards ceremony we're predicting the result of one of the categories based on votes in our Predict the Oscars competition. Yesterday we predicted a safe win for Finding Nemo as Best Animated Feature. Today we're calling the result for Directing.

City of God Katia Lund and Fernando Meirelles(2%)
Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King Peter Jackson(90%)
Lost in Translation Sofia Coppola(3%)
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World Peter Weir(3%)
Mystic River Clint Eastwood(3%)

Competition contestants are predicting Peter Jackson as the run-away winner, and it's not hard to see why. After his nomination in 2002 for The Fellowship of the Ring, and after being passed over for a nomination last year for The Two Towers, this just seems like Jackson's year. The academy has a history of make-up calls, and the success of Return of the King would give Jackson a good shot even without the first two movies in the series to back him up.

Among the also-rans, it's hard to pick between Sofia Coppola, Peter Weir and Clint Eastwood. In itself, that probably helps Jackson as well - those voters who shy away from fantasy movies have 3 very strong directing jobs to choose from as an alternative. Katia Lund and Fernando Meirelles should be recognized for a fantastic job on City of God, but unfortunately can't be considered serious contenders for the Oscar.

Filed under: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Mystic River, Lost in Translation, Cidade de Deus