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Box Office Prospects are far from Terminal

June 18th, 2004

This weekend looks to rebound from last weekend, at least critically. Financially it's another matter as the week as already seen the release of one of the most expensive bombs in recent memory. Because of that, it would take a very strong showing from the other two films for the box office to keep up with this years pace and not fall behind last year's showing.

If Tom Hanks wanted to restart his $100 million movie streak, he picked a great director to do it with; Steven Spielberg has directed a dozen such movies. Critically speaking, The Terminal isn't even close to the best film in either man's career, however, even a second rate Hanks / Spielberg movie is mile above the average film out there. Look for $29 million opening weekend and enough legs to cross $100 million before it is all said and done.

I'm not sure whether to call Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story's reviews surprisingly good, or deceptively good. While positive reviews outnumber negative reviews by nearly two to one, the critics giving this film a thumb down are a lot more enthusiastic about it. Basically, even if you like it, chances are you won't like it a lot. The film could have trouble hitting $20 million over the weekend, but given its production budget, that's a very fine start.

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban decent should level off this weekend at it takes in another $18 million. Closing in on $200 million after three weeks isn't bad, and with its international appeal this film will be a massive hit even before it hits the home market. Even so, there will be some who consider this performance a disappointment.

Another week, another record falls to Shrek 2, yet again. The animated juggernaut should earn an additional $15 million, which will easily put it ahead of The Passion of the Christ for number one for the year.

Stunning movie critics and box office analysts alike, Garfield will finish in the top five for the second weekend in a row. Many thought that the film couldn't finish in the top five even once, so this would be quite the shocker. After the film pulls in another $13 million, its box office will be more than half the way to matching its production budget.

It was a disastrous start for Around the World in 80 Days, which could only manage $1.5 million on Wednesday. The only mitigating factor is people might not have known it opened on Wednesday, the really small drop-off on Thursday seems to confirm this. However, I'm afraid very few people knew it opened on Wednesday because very few people cared to know when it opened at all. So I'm lowering my earlier prediction to just $10 million. If something doesn't turn this film around, it will be considered one of the most expensive bombs of all time.

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Filed under: Shrek 2, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story, The Terminal, Garfield: The Movie, Around the World in 80 Days