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Weekend Wrap-Up: Compton Makes the Competition Cry U.N.C.L.E.

August 18th, 2015

The Man From U.N.C.L.E.

Straight Outta Compton destroyed expectations earning even more than the outlier prediction I saw. Sadly, our predictions for The Man From U.N.C.L.E. turned out to be too optimistic, but overall the box office was still very strong. In fact, it grew 12% from last week to $148 million. Growth like that almost never happens at this time of year. Compared to last year, the box office was also strong, albeit by a smaller 3.7% margin. That said, a win is a win and worth celebrating, especially after a couple of strong declines. Year-to-date, 2015 maintains a strong lead over 2014 at $7.09 billion to $6.73 billion. A 5.4% lead year-over-year is a great margin for this time of year and it would take a really serious collapse to put that lead at risk. I don't think that's going to happen. In fact, there are three potential $1 billion hits yet to open in theaters, which is actually better than it was last year. Add in the number of potential $100 million hits and the lead could grow through till the end of the year.

Straight Outta Compton rocketed to the top of the box office chart with $60.20 million. Not only is this better than predictions, but it is also better than Friday's estimates and Sunday's studio estimates. This suggests the film's 89% positive reviews are having a really positive effect on the film's box office numbers. Additionally, the next film expected to be this big doesn't open in theaters until at least October, possibly November, so there's not a lot of competition. Add in possible Awards Season buzz and this movie might earn $200 million domestically. ... Or it could collapse next weekend due to the Fanboy effect on its way to $125 million. The latter is what happened to 8 Mile, which had a similar target demographic. Even if the film does collapse, it is still a monster hit for this time of year.

Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation fell just 40% to $17.19 million over the weekend for a total of $138.32 million after three weeks of release. At this pace, the film should surpass $150 million this weekend and has a shot at $175 million overall.

The Man From U.N.C.L.E. only managed third place with $13.42 million. Compared to the average film released at this time of year, this is a fine opening. However, given its reviews, I was expecting more that just okay. I'm sure the studio was also expecting more and unless this movie is an unexpected monster hit internationally, they won't get the franchise they were hoping for.

Fantastic Four landed on the low end of expectations down 68% to just $8.17 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $42.13 million. To put this into perspective, there were many people who predicted this movie would make more than $42.13 million during its opening weekend. It is on pace to reach $50 million, but that's as far as it will get.

The Gift held on well with $6.51 million over the weekend for a ten-day total of $23.59 million. The film only cost $5 million to make, but it likely cost close to $20 million to advertise, so it will need a good run in international markets and / or on the home market, to break even. That said, this seems likely.

There were two other films in the sophomore class, both of which held on really well. Ricki and the Flash was down 31% to $4.56 million over the weekend for a total of $14.64 million after ten days of release. This is not a good run so far, certainly less than a film starring Meryl Streep should earn. Shaun of the Sheep was down just 29% for $2.88 million over the weekend for a total of $11.15 million after two. Granted, while the box office numbers are terrible, the reviews suggest it will be bought on DVD a lot. Parents of kids young enough to be the target audience for this movie will likely rather stay at home and watch it rather than go to the theater.


Filed under: Weekend Wrap-up, Fantastic Four, Mission: Impossible—Rogue Nation, The Man From U.N.C.L.E., Ricki and the Flash, Straight Outta Compton, Shaun the Sheep, The Gift, Meryl Streep