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Friday Estimates: Close Race for First makes for Interesting Weekend

October 17th, 2015

Bridge of Spies

It looks like it will be a very interesting weekend, as Goosebumps and The Martian appear to be in a close race for first place. Goosebumps led the way on Friday with $7.35 million. This is 40% more than Pan’s opening day last weekend. Add in the film’s better reviews and its family-friendly target audience and it should have a solid internal multiplier, perhaps in the vacinity of Alexander and the Blah, Blah, Blah. That puts Goosebumps on track for a $25 million opening. That’s a little lower than I would have liked and the film will need solid legs and a reasonable international run to break even. I wouldn’t bet against it breaking even, but I don't think it will be turned into a franchise.

The Martian was in second place with $6.325 million. This is 41% lower than last Friday, putting the film on pace to earn $22 million this weekend. However, Bridge of Spies’ opening day likely took a bit out of The Martian’s Friday haul, so $23 million to $24 million seems more likely. This is nearly identical to predictions.

Up next is Bridge of Spies with $5.347 million. With near Oscar-worthy reviews and a more mature target demographic, the film’s internal multiplier should be much better than average. Perhaps even as good as the family-friendly Goosebumps. A better comparison would be Captain Phillips. Bridge of Spies had a 37%-lower opening day, but similar reviews and target audience should lead to a similar internal multiplier, giving it $16 million over the weekend.

The only disappointment was Crimson Peak, which opened in fourth place with $5.27 million. Good reviews won’t overcome the limitations of the genre and $13 million is likely all it will pull in. That’s not good for a $55 million movie.

Woodlawn grabbed a spot in the top ten with $1.5 million, or about 24% more than Do You Believe?, which is the most obvious comparison. (The films share the same target audience and distributor) Assuming the same internal multiplier, then this film will make $4.4 million over the weekend. Its early reviews are better, so let’s bump that up to $5 million.

Friday Box Office Chart
Goosebumps Comparison Chart
Bridge of Spies Comparison Chart
Crimson Peak Comparison Chart
Woodlawn Comparison Chart

Filed under: Friday Night Box Office, Crimson Peak, Pan, Goosebumps, The Martian, Bridge of Spies, Woodlawn