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Weekend Estimates: Goosebumps Set to Win Tight Race

October 18th, 2015


A slightly-softer-than-expected (but still good) opening for Goosebumps will be enough to take the film to the top of the box office chart this weekend, according to studio projections released on Sunday morning. Sony expects the family horror adventure to come in with $23.5 million on opening weekend, which is a solid enough start, and sets the film up for a good run, helped by strong reviews and Halloween coming up in a couple of weeks. The Martian will land in second with a projected $21.5 million as of this morning, a slightly steeper-than-expected 42% decline from last weekend, and a total to date around $144 million. In general, we’re looking at quite a few steep drops from last weekend thanks to an unfavorable comparison with the Columbus Day long weekend and a batch of new releases.

In third place, Bridge of Spies will come in with $15.38 million for Disney. The film’s cast and crew are a compendium of the top-performing people in the industry, from director Steven Spielberg (the MVP on our Bankability Index), to star Tom Hanks (number 8 on the Bankability Index), screenwriters Joel and Ethan Coen, director of photography Janusz Kaminski, production designer Adam Stockhausen (of The Grand Budapest Hotel and Moonrise Kingdom fame), composer Thomas Newman, and so on. With that sort of pedigree, the film should play for a while, but it is starting out slower than recent comparable films Captain Phillips and Unbroken.

In third place, Crimson Peak will bring in around $12.8 million and is looking like a rare near-miss for Universal. Again, the film will benefit from Halloween coming up in a couple of weeks and relatively strong reviews for a horror flick. But its relatively high budget for this type of film will weigh it down.

The final new wide release this weekend, Woodlawn, is projected to earn $4.1 million from 1,553 theaters, for an average a shade over $2,600. That’s not terrible for a low-budget film that will benefit from lower marketing costs thanks to its niche audience, but it’s also a sign that faith-based films are no longer a surefire bet.

In limited release, Room is following A24’s tried-and-trusted model of releasing in four theaters to huge box office, and is projected to earn $120,000 this weekend. A theater average of $30,000 is nothing to sniff at, but it’s about half what Ex Machina managed on its debut, and perhaps suggests this film will be a harder sell.

Also earning good money in limited release this weekend, as Awards Season builds up steam, are Steve Jobs with $1.5 million from 60 theaters for a $25,800 average; Truth, with $76,646 projected from 6 venues, for an average of $12,774; Chinese film, The Assassin, with $48,200 from 4; and All Things Must Pass, wich $20,000 from two locations. Notably not doing huge opening weekend business is Netflix’ theatrical debut, Beasts of No Nation, which opened in theaters on the same day as appearing on the streaming service. It will pick up around $50,000 from 31 theaters, for an average below $2,000.

- Weekend estimates
Goosebumps comps
Bridge of Spies comps
Crimson Peak comps
Woodlawn comps
- The Martian comps
- Steve Jobs comps

Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Box Office, Nie yin niang, Crimson Peak, Goosebumps, The Martian, Bridge of Spies, Steve Jobs, Room, Beasts of No Nation, Woodlawn, Truth, All Things Must Pass, Tom Hanks, Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Steven Spielberg, Thomas Newman, Janusz Kaminski, Adam Stockhausen