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Friday Estimates: Utopia for Zootopia, Clover Sees Green, Rest Bomb

March 12th, 2016


As expected, Zootopia led the way at the box office on Friday. However, its Friday number was better tan anticipated at $12.02 million. It should have a real jump at the box office on Saturday, due to its family-friendly nature, giving the film a real shot at $50 million during its sophomore stint. Even if it just fails to get there, which is likely, that would be down only 30% or so from its opening frame, and would put the film’s running tally at over $140 million and would put it on pace for well over $250 million in the end. That’s very impressive, especially for this time of year.

The only new wide release to do well is 10 Cloverfield Lane, which opened with $9 million on Friday. The reviews are excellent, but moviegoers have not been as kind. This is what happens when you sell a movie by hyping a twist. If the twist doesn’t completely work, moviegoers respond by giving the movie a CinemaScore of B-. The film will still earn more than $24 million, putting it on the high end of Friday’s predictions.

The rest of the wide releases bombed to one degree or another. The “best” was The Perfect Match, which earned $1.56 million on Friday. Its reviews are not good, even for a romantic comedy, but not a disaster either. It will still miss the top five with $4 million. It is playing in less than 1,000 theaters, so this isn’t a complete disaster.

The Young Messiah was right behind on Friday with $1.38 million, but it should climb up the chart thanks in part to its target audience of churchgoers. Its reviews are better than most faith-based films at 63% positive, while its CinemaScore is a very healthy A-. It should do well on Sunday, but likely won’t do well enough to reach $4 million over the weekend. This is not good for a film that cost $16.8 million to make. It could have been worse; the film reportedly had a $40 million budget before it was slashed by more than 50% before filming started.

Finally there’s The Brothers Grimsby, which only managed $1.2 million on Friday. Its reviews are soft at just 39% positive, but at least its CinemaScore was a B+ and that should help. It is still going to miss the Mendoza Line by a sizable margin with an opening weekend total of $3.2 million. This is even worse than expected and it wasn’t expected to be a hit.

- Friday Box Office

- Zootopia comparisons
- 10 Cloverfield Lane comparisons
- The Brothers Grimsby comparisons
- Young Messiah comparisons
- The Perfect Match comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates