Follow us on

Friday Estimates: Dory swims to $23.21 million, Resurgence shrinks to $16.8 million

June 25th, 2016

Finding Dory

Finding Dory held on to first place on Friday and that’s not good news, at least not for the box office as a whole. The film pulled in $23.21 million last night, which puts it on track to earn approximately $76 million. We predicted $74 million, so I’m calling this a victory. This will give the film close to $290 million after just ten days of release and puts it on pace to reach $300 million late Monday / early Tuesday. It will obviously hit $400 million at this pace, and it could become the first film of 2016 and the first animated film of all time to reach the $500 million milestone. That’s not a sure thing, but I think it’s at least 50/50 at this point.

Independence Day: Resurgence only managed second place with $16.8 million over the weekend, which is disappointing. I was really expecting a first place, $23 million opening on Thursday. This is even lower than revised expectations after the numbers for Thursday’s Previews were released. The drop in the film’s box office potential coincides with its plummeting reviews. On Thursday, its Tomatometer Score was just over 50% positive. That’s perfectly fine for a popcorn flick. Unfortunately, its current Tomatometer Score is just 34% positive. That’s not a disaster for this kind of film, but it is way below expectations and will hurt the film’s legs at least a little. Worse still, its audience reaction is only 42% positive and its CinemaScore is a mere B. Anything less than a B+ is bad news for a film’s long-term chances. Look for an opening weekend of $43 million and over $100 million domestically. That said, there’s still a chance it will be a massive hit internationally, earning more than $500 million, and it could break even on those numbers alone.

The Shallows did better than expected with $6.85 million on Friday and should earn close to $17 million. Its reviews have stabilized at 75% positive, which is excellent for this type of film. Its CinemaScore was a B+, which is fine for a horror film. This genre tends to be more divisive among its core fans as it is nearly impossible to please the gorehounds and the more mainstream thrills at the same time. Even if the film’s legs are weak, it will easily pay for its $13 million budget domestically and if it can find an audience internationally, then it will break even well before its home market debut. This is excellent news.

Central Intelligence earned fourth place on Friday with $5.66 million, which is only a 58% drop-off from its opening Friday and that’s actually a smaller decline than Finding Dory’s. Granted, it's not a family film, so it won’t get a huge boost from Saturday matinees, but it should still fall only 50% compared to its opening weekend. This will give it just over $18 million, and third place, during its second weekend of release, while also keeping it on pace for $100 million domestically.

On the other hand, Free State of Jones struggled to just $2.8 million on Friday. Its reviews have improved a lot since Thursday morning and they are now 40% positive. That’s still bad for a drama, but not fatal. It earned an A from CinemaScore, so maybe it will have legs over the weekend. Look for an opening of nearly $8 million.

We do have estimates for a couple of limited releases. Firstly, there’s The Neon Demon. On Friday, I thought the film had a shot at a place in the top ten with $2.5 million, more or less. I wasn’t particularly bullish compared to other analysts, but apparently I was too bullish compared to the average moviegoer. I read this morning before numbers came in that it was going to earn just under $500,000. My reaction was, “$500,000 on Friday is bad. It's going to open below the Mendoza Line.” Then I realized that estimate was for the weekend. It made $177,000 on Friday. Ugh.

On the other hand, Swiss Army Man is yet another hit for A24. The film earned $35,000 on Friday in just three theaters and should have no trouble leading the per theater average over the weekend. It is too strange to expand wide, even semi-wide, but it could become a cult classic on the home market.

- Friday Box Office

- Finding Dory comparisons
- Independence Day: Resurgence Comparisons
- The Shallows Comparisons
- Free State of Jones Comparisons
- The Neon Demon Comparisons
- Swiss Army Man Comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates