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Friday Estimates: The Purge Tops Chart, but Tarzan has Swinging Start

July 2nd, 2016

The Legend of Tarzan

The Purge: Election Year earned first place with on Friday with $14.47 million during its opening day. This is impressive for film that cost $10 million to make, but it is below the opening day for the first film. The holidays should help its internal multiplier, as will the critical reception. While its reviews have slipped below the overall positive level, they are still the best for the franchise. Additionally, its CinemaScore was B+, again the best for the franchise. This puts the film on pace for just under $40 million during its four-day weekend. This is very likely more than the film’s combined budget, so if it can make this much during the rest of its theatrical run, it will break even just on its domestic numbers.

The Legend of Tarzan was right behind with $14.04 million on Friday. This is a little puzzling, but there are some hints as to why it did as well as it did. Firstly, while its reviews are mired in the low 30s, its CinemaScore was an A-. Secondly, the movie was pulling in families. This will help its legs, and give it second place for the weekend with $42 million. This is better than anticipated, but not enough to pay for its $180 million production budget, so it will need help internationally to break even.

Finding Dory was pushed out of top spot on Friday with $13.44 million, giving it third place. However, it is a family-friendly film with stunning reviews, so it should have stronger legs over the weekend than the three wide releases. Look for first place with about $53 million over four days.

The BFG struggled thanks in part to The Legend of Tarzan’s popularity with families. It only managed $7.03 million on Friday. Its reviews are the best out of the three wide releases and it earned an A- from CinemaScore, but that wasn’t enough to draw in moviegoers. The family-friendly nature should help its legs, giving it $24 million over four days. That’s in line with our three-day prediction, so that’s disappointing.

Independence Day: Resurgence collapsed to just $4.65 million. That's 72% lower than its opening Friday. It won’t get to $20 million over the four-day weekend. However, it could still get to $100 million domestically. It will be a lot closer than previously thought.

- The BFG Comparisons
- The Purge: Election Year Comparisons
- The Legend of Tarzan Comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates, The Purge