Friday Estimates: Toy Story 4 needs to be a Monster Hit

June 15, 2019

Men in Black: International

It is going to be a really bad weekend. All of the progress we made since Endgame came out could be erased in a week and if Toy Story 4 isn’t a monster hit, then 2019 will be in serious trouble, again. Men in Black: International led the way on Friday, but it only managed $10.4 million. Sony is projecting a $26.2 million opening weekend, which would be the studio’s biggest opening of the year so far. In fact, it would be the studio’s third biggest hit of the year after just three days. Yikes. The film’s reviews are terrible and it only managed a B from CinemaScore, so I don’t expect long legs. There are some rumors going around that the film didn’t cost as much as its official $110 million production budget, but even if those are true, this is still not a good start. Maybe it will thrive internationally.

The Secret Life of Pets 2 is falling faster than expected, down 58% from its opening Friday to just $6.89 million. It is a family film, so it should bounce back the most on Saturday; however, it will still miss our prediction with a projected $24 million. This would still be enough to top its production budget in just 10 days, so the studio, Universal, should be satisfied with this, even if they don’t make a third film in the franchise.

Aladdin is the only film to top expectations earning $4.75 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $16 million over the full weekend. It has been one of the few pleasant surprises of the summer so far.

Shaft was also a surprise, but not a pleasant one. The film only managed $2.73 million on Friday, including $600,000 in previews, putting it pace for just over $7 million over the weekend. That won’t be enough to land in the top five. This is a real shame, as the film earned an A from CinemaScore, so clearly the people who saw the movie loved it. They certainly loved it more than the critics did and hopefully it will become a cult classic.

Dark Phoenix rounded out the top five on Friday with just $2.35 million. This is 83% lower than its opening Friday and it will likely earn less than $8 million over the full weekend. It’s going to lose a lot of money and it will be the last installment in this franchise until Disney can figure out what to do with these characters.

Late Night bombed in its wide expansion earning just $1.66 million on Friday in over 2,000 theaters. It will likely miss the Mendoza Line over the full weekend, but it should be close with just over $4 million. The film’s reviews are the best of the weekend, but it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore, which is middling, so I’m not sure where its legs will take it from here.

The Dead Never Die matched expectations with $920,000 on 613 screens on Friday, which wasn’t enough to open in the top ten. It is also not enough to justify significant expansion. Furthermore, the reviews are mixed, so I suspect its legs will be on the short side. (The film was too small to get a CinemaScore.)

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Avengers: Endgame, Toy Story 4, Shaft, The Secret Life of Pets 2, Dark Phoenix, Aladdin, Men in Black: International, Late Night, The Dead Don’t Die, X-Men, The Secret Life of Pets