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Sunday, July 27, 2014

Predicted Oscar Winners - 2007

The Numbers' annual Oscar polls have proved to be remarkably accurate predictors of the final results on Oscar night. We call results based on the hundreds of Numbers readers who vote in our Predict the Oscars competition.

We've received all the votes now, and are ready to make predictions in all categories. Percentage figures are the percentage of Numbers readers who believe a movie or performance will win in a particular category. They are a rough guide to how likely a particular movie is to win in a category - for example, we're pretty certain Helen Mirren will win the Best Actress award, while The Departed is the narrowest of favorites for Best Picture.

Overall, as expected, this year's predictions suggest that the awards will be spread far and wide among the nominees. Dreamgirls is predicted to win the most awards, but with a very modest total of four, including Best Song and Sound Mixing, as well as supporting actor awards for Eddie Murphy and Jennifer Hudson. The Departed is tipped to win in three major categories: Best Picture, Directing and Adapted Screenplay. If it does so, it will most likely be hailed as the champion on the night.

In total, thirteen different feature-length movies are predicted to win at least one Oscar, which would make this one of the most varied Oscar nights in history. However, with many of the predicted wins coming from movies with only 30-40% of our votes, we can expect a lot of surprises on the night.

- Click here to see the complete vote tallies in each category
- Click here to see the final Oscar results

Best Picture The Departed  (34.90%)
Animated Feature Cars  (62.41%)
Directing The Departed Martin Scorsese (61.33%)
Actor in a Leading Role The Last King of Scotland Forest Whitaker (64.05%)
Actress in a Leading Role The Queen Helen Mirren (70.95%)
Actor in a Supporting Role Dreamgirls Eddie Murphy (49.56%)
Actress in a Supporting Role Dreamgirls Jennifer Hudson (67.52%)
Art Direction Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest  (32.32%)
Cinematography Children of Men  (32.77%)
Costume Design Marie Antoinette  (38.10%)
Documentary Feature An Inconvenient Truth  (68.21%)
Documentary - Short Subject Recycled Life (35.18%)
Film Editing Babel  (32.97%)
Foreign Language Film El Laberinto del Fauno  (48.22%)
Makeup Apocalypto  (50.99%)
Original Score Babel  (34.78%)
Original Song Dreamgirls Listen (41.22%)
Animated Short The Little Matchgirl (52.33%)
Live Action Short West Bank Story (29.11%)
Sound Editing Letters from Iwo Jima  (33.83%)
Sound Mixing Dreamgirls  (45.61%)
Visual Effects Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest  (73.81%)
Adapted Screenplay The Departed  (52.31%)
Original Screenplay Little Miss Sunshine  (43.39%)

We'll have a full report on how our predictions matched up to reality on Monday morning.